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News Analysis: Singapore elections: A new chapter?

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Imanuddin Razak (The Jakarta Post)
Jakarta
Fri, September 11, 2015

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News Analysis: Singapore elections: A new chapter?

S

ome 2.5 million registered voters go to the polling booths in Singapore today as part of their constitutional commitment to electing their representatives in the country'€™s 89-seat parliament. The parliamentary general election will see the ruling People'€™s Action Party (PAP) challenged by eight opposition parties, including the two parties that managed to secure seats in the 2011 election '€” the Workers'€™ Party and the Singapore People'€™s Party.

This is the 17th general election in Singapore and the 12th held since independence in 1965. Today'€™s election will showcase a number of new characteristics in the country'€™s political landscape that might influence or at least mark the results of the polls.

The PAP is seeking to secure its 14th consecutive victory since 1959. This will be its third election with Lee Hsien Loong '€” also the incumbent Prime Minister '€” as the party'€™s secretary-general.

One major characteristic of this year'€™s election is that for the first time, the ruling party is contesting the election without the presence of key founding member and the country'€™s founding father Lee Kuan Yew, who died in March at the age of 91. Lee senior was the father of PM Lee.

Lee senior served as Singapore'€™s prime minister from 1959, when Singapore secured self-rule from the British, until 1990, when he stepped down. He led Singapore'€™s six-year transition from British colonial outpost, through self-administration, merger with and then separation from Malaysia, to independent statehood, and Singapore'€™s declaration as a republic, in 1965. He was a founding member of the PAP and is credited with transforming Singapore from a desolate Asian storehouse into a busy and wealthy financial hub.

Many are predicting that the absence of Lee senior will influence the PAP'€™s results in this year'€™s election, as the party could lose some of its traditional support bases, which the party had controlled thanks to his charisma and strong hand in the country'€™s prosperity.

Another significant factor endangering the PAP'€™s performance is Singapore'€™s weakening economy '€” though it is a global phenomenon. One bitter lesson learned was from the 2011 election, when the public'€™s resentment over housing prices, the cost of living and high immigration left PAP with a drop in votes. The party still won 81 of the contested 87 seats, but secured only 60.1 percent of the vote, the lowest percentage in its history.

This year'€™s election will also for the first time give all voters the opportunity to choose whom they want in power. PAP and the opposition parties will contest all 89 parliamentary seats. In contrast, in the 2006 election, residents in only 47 of 84 electoral seats had a choice.

The electoral policy that allows voters to vote for all the available parliament seats, however, shows that the ruling party is optimistic of winning the election. The results of a recent survey point to the reasons for that confidence.

The survey was commissioned by MediaCorp and conducted by Blackbox Research, a 14-year-old company that has carried out numerous studies for commercial clients and regional governments, including Singapore'€™s. It was held between July 11 and Aug. 6 this year.

The survey, which was designed to give a snapshot of sentiment on a variety of issues, from education to healthcare to public transportation, in the weeks leading up to Singapore'€™s Golden Jubilee National Day, revealed that a significant percentage of the respondents were supportive of the government. Sixty-four percent replied '€œgood'€ or '€œvery good'€ when asked about the government'€™s performance since the 2011 general election, another 23 percent responded '€œokay'€ and only 10 percent responded '€œnot so good or poor'€.

Respondents were also asked to gauge the government'€™s performance over the past four years in some 20 areas. The top three areas '€” where more than 90 percent of the 2,000 responders interviewed felt the government had done a good, very good or excellent job '€” were defense, crime prevention and education. At the other end of the spectrum, the three areas where respondents felt the government could have done more were managing the inflow of foreigners, housing affordability and the cost of living.

The true aspirations of the Singaporean people for their next government of choice will only be truly apparent after all the votes are counted. The PAP will certainly be unable to repeat its past glories, particularly those it enjoyed during the years of Lee Kuan Yew.

However, based on the statistics and projected trends, the proven track record of clean and reliable governance, as well as historical records '€” particularly those of bitter lessons of the country'€™s past, which has been marred with incidents of racial unrest and tests of security and order '€” the poll is very likely to return the same government '€” though, just possibly, given the new openness in this year'€™s election, it may lose a few seats to the opposition.

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