TheJakartaPost

Please Update your browser

Your browser is out of date, and may not be compatible with our website. A list of the most popular web browsers can be found below.
Just click on the icons to get to the download page.

Jakarta Post

Somber spending dims growth

Sluggish household consumption dragged down last year’s economy and the full-year figure fell below expectations

Tassia Sipahutar (The Jakarta Post)
Jakarta
Sat, February 6, 2016

Share This Article

Change Size

Somber spending dims growth

S

luggish household consumption dragged down last year'€™s economy and the full-year figure fell below expectations.

The country'€™s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at a rate of just 4.79 percent last year, according to data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) published on Friday.

The result was lower than the 4.9 percent forecast by many, including the government, and lower compared to the 5.02 percent growth rate achieved in 2014.

Household consumption, which is the country'€™s main engine for growth, contributing to more than half of the nation'€™s GDP, suffered a setback last year as it rose by an annual rate of 4.96 percent in 2015, down from 5.14 percent in 2014.

Bank Central Asia (BCA) chief economist David Sumual said that several policies had disrupted household consumption, impacting growth in a negative way.

'€œAt the beginning, the government banned officials from holding meetings in hotels. It scrapped the policy later on, but it affected consumption,'€ he said.

Other policies on rice and corn imports also affected consumption as they led to soaring prices that weakened people'€™s purchasing power, David added.

Falling commodity prices played a role as well in slowing down household spending.

In the past, commodity rich regions like Kalimantan were significant contributors to growth. Kalimantan was once listed as Indonesia'€™s third-largest contributor to growth. After the collapse in coal and crude palm oil (CPO) prices in 2015, however, resource-rich Kalimantan fell below Sulawesi, Bali Nusa Tenggara, Maluku and Papua.

Glenn Maguire, ANZ Bank'€™s chief economist for South Asia, ASEAN and the Pacific, said that '€œat 55 percent of GDP, the inability of private consumption to muster any momentum will remain a principal anchor on the Indonesian recovery.'€

He also warned that the renewed drop in commodity prices would present additional headwinds to growth momentum in 2016.

Meanwhile, higher budget disbursement in the last quarter of 2015 had apparently delivered positive changes in investment and government consumption.

Unlike household spending, investment and government consumption posted higher growth rates last year compared to previous years.

According to BPS data, investment surged 5.07 percent year-on-year (yoy) in 2015 from 4.12 percent yoy in 2014 and government consumption jumped to 5.38 percent yoy in 2015 from 1.98 percent yoy in 2014.

BPS head Suryamin attributed more robust state budget spending in the last quarter, particular on infrastructure projects, as the central reason behind the positive performance of investment and government consumption.

As earlier reported, the government allocated as much as Rp 290.3 trillion (US$21.26 billion) in the state budget for infrastructure-related projects in 2015.

In turn, construction was listed as one of three economic sectors to record the highest growth rate throughout last year.

However, HSBC economist Su Sian Lim wrote in a research note that it remained to be seen whether the pickup in investment was all to do with infrastructure.

'€œWhile it is likely that some of this investment acceleration did reflect faster infrastructure outlays, we would still caution against taking the view that this necessarily implies a surge in infrastructure outlays for 2016.'€

Lim added that some of the strength in investment in the last quarter probably '€œreflects last-ditch efforts by the government to try to attain disbursement targets before the year'€™s end'€.

--------------------

To receive comprehensive and earlier access to The Jakarta Post print edition, please subscribe to our epaper through iOS' iTunes, Android's Google Play, Blackberry World or Microsoft's Windows Store. Subscription includes free daily editions of The Nation, The Star Malaysia, the Philippine Daily Inquirer and Asia News.

For print subscription, please contact our call center at (+6221) 5360014 or subscription@thejakartapost.com

Your Opinion Matters

Share your experiences, suggestions, and any issues you've encountered on The Jakarta Post. We're here to listen.

Enter at least 30 characters
0 / 30

Thank You

Thank you for sharing your thoughts. We appreciate your feedback.