The electoral success of the Golkar Party, the longest-lasting political party in the country, has been stymied by the long-standing leadership dispute between Aburizal Bakrie and Agung Laksono. So serious and destructive has the impact of the prolonged internal conflict been that the party put in a humiliating performance in the simultaneous regional elections last December. The Jakarta Post'€™s Imanuddin Razak and Margareth S. Aritonang take a close look at the issue and its impact on the party now and in the future.

The major indicator of success or the caliber of a political party is its results in any elections, legislative or presidential elections, at the national level as well as the regional level, in which it takes part. Electoral success is crucial for all political parties, including the Golkar Party, in their quest for leadership positions in the country'€™s political arena.

It is because of this that Golkar'€™s performance in the simultaneous regional elections last December caused alarm not only among the party'€™s leadership, but also among its rank and file. Provisional results, as compiled by the People's Voters Education Network (JPPR), have revealed that Golkar came ninth out of the 12 political parties that put up candidates to contest the regional elections, far below its arch rival '€”the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) '€” which topped the poll.

The elections were held in 256 regions '€” consisting of eight provinces and 248 regencies/mayoralties. Golkar itself only managed to contest the elections in 116 regions in what was the first phase of the simultaneous regional elections. The second phase will be held in February next year and the third phase in June 2018.

No in-depth analysis is needed to identify the culprit behind Golkar'€™s plunge in the latest political contest '€” the party'€™s worst result in its history since its establishment in October 1964 '€” as all fingers point at the prolonged leadership dispute in the party. The dispute has not only divided Golkar into two opposing camps, but most importantly led to the party'€™s failure to consolidate its membership across the country to prepare and register themselves in time to contest the elections.

Golkar'€™s decline, particularly in the country'€™s most important political event '€” the five-yearly general elections '€” began with the fall of Soeharto from power in May 1998. Besides his official status as the country'€™s president, Soeharto was also the chief patron of Golkar throughout his 32-year presidential tenure. As a result, Golkar had enjoyed the luxury of being the single biggest party in the country'€™s political arena, consecutively sweeping all six general elections from 1971 until 1997 with an average vote of over 60 percent.

Soeharto'€™s fall from the presidency and the subsequent waves of demand for political and economic reforms, including in the bureaucracy, led to a significant drop in Golkar'€™s vote in the 1999 general election as it suffered defeat for the first time when it secured 22.44 percent of the vote to come second behind the PDI-P, which won 33.74 percent. One major cause of Golkar'€™s electoral plunge was the termination in 1999 of the Indonesian Military (TNI) and civil service party-membership blocks, which had formed two of the three mainstays of Golkar membership.

Yet, Golkar managed to win back the national political crown in the 2004 elections. The victory came under the leadership of Akbar Tandjung, who was Golkar chairman from 1998-2004. Although he took up his post at a most difficult time as he could only rely on the third element of Golkar, the functional group. Akbar managed to restore Golkar'€™s supremacy in Indonesian politics following the end of Soeharto and the New Order.

Of all the keys to his success in restoring the domestic political equilibrium at the time was the fact that Akbar frequently toured the archipelago to consolidate the party, including its membership and election machinery.

Ideologically, the current political parties pursue the same nationalistic agenda and mission. Coupled with programs aimed at winning the support of the majority '€” the Islamic element of society '€” future battles are therefore equally widely open for any of them.

Golkar's poor performance in the first phase of the regional elections shows that the electoral competition has effectively become much tougher for Golkar. Unless Golkar manages to address and resolve its internal problems, the coming elections will remain potentially catastrophic battles for it.

Golkar is scheduled to hold its extraordinary congress in Jakarta in April. The congress is expected to elect a new party chairman '€” evidently a key element in Golkar'€™s election victories '€” and establish its complete organizational structure, significant steps for the party ahead of the next phases of the regional elections next year and in 2018 and the highpoint of the country'€™s political landscape '€” the simultaneous legislative and presidential elections in 2019.

This will entirely depend on Golkar's own capability to recruit potential and '€œsellable'€ candidates to contest those elections, consolidate the party's machinery from the top at the national level down to the regency/mayoralty levels, as well as massively mobilizing its members, loyalists and sympathizers for the elections.

Those upcoming elections are the real litmus tests for whether Golkar can endure and survive all the challenges, and prove its staying power as the longest-lasting and most experienced political party in the republic. Only time will tell whether Golkar can restore the political equilibrium back toward its own advantage following its poor performance in December'€™s elections.

Turning points in Golkar Party history

'–¼ Oct. 20, 1964

Sekretariat Bersama Golongan Karya (Sekber Golkar) is established as a federation of 97 organizations

'–¼ December 1965

First national meeting of Sekber Golkar elects Maj. Gen. Suprapto Sukowati as chairman

'–¼ Feb. 4, 1970

Sekber Golkar issues joint agreement to participate in general elections

'–¼ Jul. 17, 1971

Sekber Golkar changes its name to Golkar

'–¼ Sept. 10, 1973

First national congress of Golkar in Surabaya elects
Maj. Gen. Amir Murtono as chairman

'–¼ May 1977

Golkar secures 62.1 percent of vote in general election
and subsequently wins 232 seats in the House of
Representatives

'–¼ Oct. 20-25, 1978

Second national congress held in Denpasar, Bali

'–¼ May 1982

Golkar secures more votes in general election and wins more seats in the House, but fails to dominate the election in Aceh as it is won by the United Development Party (PPP). Nationwide, Golkar secures 64.3 percent of the vote and wins 242 House seats

'–¼ Oct. 20-25, 1983

Third national congress in Jakarta elects Sudharmono as chairman for the 1983-1988 period

'–¼ Apr. 1987

Golkar secures 73.16 percent of the vote in the general election and subsequently wins 299 House seats

'–¼ Oct. 20-25, 1988

Fourth national congress in Jakarta elects Wahono as
chairman for the 1988-1993 period

'–¼ June 1992

Golkar secures 68.1 percent of vote in general election and subsequently wins 282 House seats

'— Oct. 20-25, 1993

Fifth national congress elects Harmoko as chairman for the 1993-1998 period. Harmoko becomes first civilian to be inaugurated as chairman.

'–¼ May 1997

Golkar wins an absolute victory, with 74.1 percent of the vote in the general election and secures 325 House seats

'— October 1998

Akbar Tandjung is elected chairman in a national congress

'–¼ Mar. 7, 1999

Ruling political grouping Golkar officially declares itself a political party

'–¼ June 1999

Golkar'€™s vote drops dramatically to 22.3 percent

'–¼ Jul. 23, 2001

Abdurrahman '€œGus Dur'€ Wahid issues a presidential decree that orders the freezing of Golkar Party while awaiting Supreme Court ruling that is expected to legalize the decree. The Supreme Court then issues a ruling declaring the presidential decree unlawful

'–¼ Jul. 11-30, 2003

Registration period for presidential candidates convention

'–¼ Apr. 5, 2004

Golkar'€™s vote decreases yet again in the 2004 legislative elections, securing only 21.5 percent of vote and 128 seats

'–¼ Apr. 20, 2004

Gen. (ret) Wiranto wins Golkar'€™s presidential convention

'— Dec. 19, 2004

Jusuf Kalla elected chairman for the 2004-2009 period

'–¼ April 2009

Golkar wins 107 seats with 14.45 percent of vote in legislative elections

'— Oct. 7, 2009

Aburizal Bakrie elected chairman for the 2009-2014 period

'–¼ April 2014

Golkar comes in second with 14.75 percent of the vote and 91 seats in the legislative elections

'–¼ Nov. 25, 2014

Several Golkar members injured in a clash between two rival groups within the party at the party'€™s headquarters in West Jakarta.

'–¼ Nov. 26, 2014

Camp of Agung Laksono '€œoccupies'€ Golkar headquarters

'–¼ Dec 3, 2014

Aburizal re-elected as chairman for the 2014-2019 period by acclamation at national congress in Bali

'— Dec. 8, 2014

Agung elected chairman at a splinter congress in Ancol, North Jakarta, organized by faction disputing the leadership of Aburizal

'–¼ Mar. 3, 2015

Panel members of the dispute committee of Golkar are divided in their conclusions

'–¼ Mar. 27, 2015

Agung'€™s camp attempts to take over the office on the 12th floor of the House building in Senayan, Central Jakarta, after his leadership is validated by Law and Human Rights Minister Yasonna H. Laoly.

'–¼ Jul. 24, 2015

North Jakarta District Court issues a ruling in favor of Aburizal, declaring his leadership legally valid

'–¼ Sept. 8, 2015

Golkar issues an official apology for a publicity stunt involving House Speaker Setya Novanto appearing at US presidential hopeful Donald Trump'€™s campaign event in New York

'–¼ Oct. 20, 2015

Court accepts Aburizal'€™s challenge to a decree previously issued by the government that legalized Agung camp.

'–¼ Dec. 17, 2015

In a swift move in response to the resignation of House speaker Setya, Golkar leaders decide to swap his position with Ade Komarudin, the party'€™s leader in the House.

'–¼ Dec. 18, 2015

Golkar leadership agrees to hold a national leadership meeting to bring an end to leadership dispute. Meeting will decide whether the party will hold an extraordinary national congress to elect a new chairman

'–¼ Dec. 29, 2015

Golkar'€™s advisory council head Akbar Tandjung calls on Aburizal and Agung camps to immediately hold national congress at the beginning of 2016

'–¼ Dec. 31, 2015

Law and Human Rights Ministry revokes a decree that previously recognized Golkar leadership as that which emanated from the December 2014 congress in Ancol. Revocation paves way for Aburizal camp to take full control of party. Decree gives Golkar six months to prepare for an extraordinary national congress in order to unify conflicting factions.

'–¼ Jan. 23, 2016

Golkar holds its national leadership meeting at the Jakarta Convention Center

'–¼ Jan. 26, 2016

Golkar officially declares its support for President Joko '€œJokowi'€ Widodo'€™s government, a move that means the ruling coalition now able to secure more than 70 percent of House seats. Decision is made during party'€™s national leadership meeting

'–¼ Jan. 28, 2016

Government extends its support for Golkar leadership chosen by 2009 national congress in Riau to help the party organize another congress as part of the effort to end its leadership schism. Government gives Riau leadership six months to prepare for an extraordinary congress, results of which are expected to be accepted by opposing factions

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