T

he political force aiming to outlaw the production, distribution and sale of alcoholic beverages has collapsed against a wall of opposition, as lawmakers share their pessimism about the possibility of the controversial prohibition bill being passed into law by year-end.

Sponsored by the Islamic-based United Development Party (PPP) and Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), the bill has returned to the table after all 10 party factions of the House of Representatives agreed to endorse it as a priority bill in the 2016 National Legislation Program (Prolegnas).

The bill, which would ban the circulation of beverages containing more than 1 percent alcohol, has sparked widespread debate, including protests from alcoholic beverage producers, tourist industry players and local community leaders, who argue that prohibition would drive away tourists and debase local traditions.

While opposition to the bill mounts, lawmakers are also caught up in opposing camps.

Speaking in a recent discussion, PPP lawmaker Achmad Mustaqin, a member of the House’s special committee for deliberation of the bill, said the PPP, PKS and the National Mandate Party (PAN), which support prohibition, were now in a standoff with the remaining seven factions — together controlling over 70 percent of House seats — that reject a total ban and instead endorse control over the consumption of the products.

Achmad said there was little chance of the bill getting passed into law by year-end. If it does not get passed, the bill must secure another spot in next year’s Prolegnas or risk suspended deliberations.

“At this stage, what matters is intervention from [party] leaders. If they get involved, we’ll just follow [what they say],” he said.

Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) lawmaker Hendrawan Supratikno and the Golkar Party’s Noor Rachman, both members of the special committee, are also pessimistic about the passing of the bill.

“I’m not convinced that it will be passed this year,” said both politicians, who represent the country’s largest and second-largest political parties, respectively.

Despite being the world’s largest Muslim-majority country, Indonesia is home to a number of local traditions and rituals that involve the consumption of alcohol, including those in East Nusa Tenggara and on the resort island of Bali.

Separately, Indonesian Retailers Association vice chairman Tutum Rahanta, urged lawmakers to abolish the word “prohibition” from the bill, saying that it would bring confusion to the business industry.

“We’re experts in execution. We know for sure businesspeople will be discouraged [to invest] if they see the word prohibition in the title regardless of the exceptions in the explanation,” he said.

In 2015, then-trade minister Rachmat Gobel issued Ministerial Regulation No. 6/2015, banning the sale of beverages containing more than 1 percent alcohol in minimarkets.

Following the regulation implementation, the beer industry saw sales and revenue drop by 30 percent, as most consumers used to purchase alcohol in convenience stores, said Tutum.

Data from the Indonesian Malt Beverage Industry Group, meanwhile, said the country’s beer consumption per capita stood at 1 liter per year, much lower than Malaysia’s 15 liters.

However, PPP lawmaker Mohammad Arwani Thomafi, who leads the special committee, said he believed the bill could be passed into law in mid-December during the House’s final sitting session this year.

“We want to complete deliberations sooner, but we need to find one voice to seal the bill,” he said.