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ndonesia and other ASEAN countries should be prepared for all eventualities in the disputed South China Sea as the situation remains uncertain and fluid, experts have warned.

Among the variables are the possibility of changes in United States policy in the region under president-elect Donald Trump, the mixed signals of Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte, and the recent ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) on the disputed region.

“The security situation is uncertain because roles might change. We don’t know what is Trump’s next step in terms of the US relationship with China,” Jaime B. Naval, an assistant professor at the political science department at the University of the Philippines Dilman, told a seminar at the Navy Staff and Command School (Seskoal) on Thursday.

Seskoal held the International Maritime Seminar as part of its 54th anniversary. The seminar, the theme of which was The South China Sea; Strategic Impact for Regional Maritime Security, was attended by hundreds of participants comprising officers from the Navy and other branches of the military, and students.

Naval said that it was obvious that Trump would transform the style of the US presidency.

“The US can opt to revise not only its South China Sea tactics, but even its grand strategy in Asia Pacific,” he said.

Trump said during his campaign that he wanted, for example, Japan and South Korea to play a bigger role in the defense of the region.

Veteran diplomat Arif Havas Oegroseno, who was also a keynote speaker, acknowledged that Indonesia was still waiting the next US move in the South China Sea dispute.

“We don’t know the policy under President Trump [in the South China Sea dispute]. We’re still waiting for his Cabinet and his secretary of state. It is still currently unclear,” said Arif, a deputy to the minister for maritime sovereignty at the Office of the Coordinating Maritime Affairs Minister.

According to Arif, Indonesia’s stance on the dispute has not changed at all.

“We’re developing tourism, oil and gas services, the environment and defense on Natuna Islands. We are asserting our sovereignty near the disputed area,” he added.

Natuna, with its waters rich in natural resources and its location close to the disputed South China Sea, is at risk of being claimed by neighboring countries.

The government has started to build military bases in Natuna to send a strong message that it is indisputably part of Indonesia. While Indonesia is not a claimant in the South China Sea dispute, the Natuna Islands and Natuna Sea sit on the fringes of the disputed area.

Both Naval and Arif shared the similar view that ASEAN should more be united in resolving disputes in the South China Sea, but this has been hindered by internal divisions.

“ASEAN is entering a new phase as a community. This is quite challenging. However, we have managed to maintain peace and security in the region,” Arif said.

Meanwhile Naval suggested that ASEAN should review the mechanism for achieving agreement.

“We have a problem in ASEAN because we have to be unanimous [in achieving an agreement]. We have to examine the way we make decisions,” he said.