T

he defeat of the incumbent Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama-Djarot Syaiful Hidayat ticket in the Jakarta gubernatorial election is being viewed as a major blow to government coalition parties.

After months of tense and energy-consuming campaigning, marked by the exploitation of sectarian sentiment by supporters of the incumbent’s rivals, quick counts indicate that the April 19 runoff race ended in a substantial victory for the Anies Baswedan-Sandiaga Uno ticket. Anies-Sandiaga was backed by government opposition parties, namely the Gerindra Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS). All seven government coalition parties, except the National Mandate Party (PAN), which also supported Anies-Sandiaga, backed Ahok-Djarot, who got 42 percent of around 7 million votes.

Observers believe the result of the Jakarta race will reshape the national political landscape ahead of the 2019 legislative and presidential elections.

Political parties are now bracing for the 2018 regional elections in 171 provinces, regencies and cities, including the country’s three most-populous provinces: West Java, East Java and Central Java.

The combined population of the three provinces amounted to 114 million in the 2010 census, accounting for almost half of the national population of 239 million.

Winning the races in these provinces is seen as a crucial phase in the bid to consolidate electoral power and ultimately win votes in the 2019 legislative and presidential races.

“We are conducting a study to assess the electability of potential candidates in East Java. This includes Bu Khofifah,” said Hendarwan Supratikno, an executive of the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). He was referring to Social Affairs Minister Khofifah Indar Parawansa, a noted member of PDI-P ally the National Awakening Party (PKB).

“Regarding Khofifah’s candidacy, however, it will depend on herself and of course Jokowi,” he added, referring to President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, a PDI-P member.

The ruling party has another potential strong contender, the popular Tri Rismaharini. As the mayor of Surabaya, the East Java capital, Rismaharini has strong support in the province.

The Islam-based United Development Party (PPP) also acknowledged it had assessed the popularity and electability of Khofifah and Rismaharini.

PPP secretary-general Arsul Sani said Khofifah had attracted the attention of several parties, including the PPP. “Although we haven’t decided, we are eyeing her because of her popularity and leadership [in East Java],” he said.

The list of potential West Java gubernatorial candidates, meanwhile, includes popular Bandung Mayor Ridwan Kamil, Deputy Governor Deddy Mizwar, Purwakarta Regent Dedi Mulyadi and Bekasi Mayor Rahmat Effendi who recently received an award for defending pluralism.

In Central Java, incumbent Governor Ganjar Pranowo, a PDI-P politician, is still seen as the strongest contender.

While parties have yet to engage in serious talks on political strategies ahead of the 2018 regional elections, analysts say party leaders would definitely take into account the 2019 elections when forming coalitions in the regions.

“In the past, PAN collaborated with the PDI-P, for example, to nominate a Christian candidate in Papua. We are okay with that,” PAN member Yandri Susanto said. “Thus, what happened in Jakarta would not necessarily determine coalitions in other places. Coalitions in the regions are flexible.”

Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) researcher Arya Fernandes concurred, saying he expected flexible partnerships among parties ahead of the 2018 elections. However the opposition Gerindra and PKS are likely to maintain their successful partnership in Jakarta.

“But issues revolving around religion and ethnicity might not sell in areas like Central Java that have abangan [less strict] Muslims, or East Java, which is dominated by the Nahdlatul Ulama,” he said.