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Shinzo Abe’s last choice

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe enthusiastically embraced the ASEAN-initiated Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) only after he realized that nothing could change United States President Donald Trump’s decision to abandon the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)

The Jakarta Post
Tue, July 3, 2018

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Shinzo Abe’s last choice

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apanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe enthusiastically embraced the ASEAN-initiated Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) only after he realized that nothing could change United States President Donald Trump’s decision to abandon the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

Indonesia has been extremely cautious with the TPP, because it was clearly aimed at isolating China despite denials of this claim from the US and Japan.

China’s presence, as a hostile trading partner of Japan’s, and the absence of the US, Japan’s most important ally, in the trade bloc were major reasons behind Abe’s reluctance. Humiliated by Trump’s blunt veto against the TPP, Japan turned to ASEAN’s initiative. Indeed, India’s membership is a positive factor for Japan in reducing China’s dominance.

RCEP members comprise the 10-member ASEAN, China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand. It excluded the US from the beginning. China strongly supports the proposed trading bloc, which covers about half of the world’s population and 30 percent of the global economy and trade.

Abe had multiple meetings and telephone conversations with Trump, who however stuck to his decision to abandon the TPP. Trump even announced his readiness for trade wars against the US’ major trading partners, including China, Japan and European countries.

When opening the RCEP ministerial meeting in Tokyo on Sunday, Abe said: “As we are faced with concerns of […] protectionism […], all of us in Asia must unite, and our future depends on whether we can keep hoisting our flagship principle of free and fair trade.”

Abe echoed the expectations of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo that RCEP could start next year after the expected conclusion of its negotiations. However, reports say the members have only agreed on two of the pact’s 18 chapters.

Japan’s participation, and also India’s, in RCEP will strengthen ASEAN’s position. China is also refraining from playing a dominant role because it would affect its relations with ASEAN. China will still play its natural role as the world’s second-largest economy.

ASEAN has made it clear that China, Japan and the other four members are its guests. ASEAN is the host, and will be in RCEP’s driving seat even though the outsiders are richer and more powerful than ASEAN members.

Hopefully Indonesia can lead the the regional grouping given its close relations with these guests, no matter how mighty they are.

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