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Protection money for Trump

The government not only needs to mitigate any potential impact on the Indonesian economy from United States President Donald Trump’s global trade war; it also has to anticipate a possible arms race among major Asian nations, given Trump’s repeated warnings to US allies in the region, including Japan and South Korea, that they must pay more for the protection they receive from the US

The Jakarta Post
Thu, July 12, 2018

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Protection money for Trump

T

he government not only needs to mitigate any potential impact on the Indonesian economy from United States President Donald Trump’s global trade war; it also has to anticipate a possible arms race among major Asian nations, given Trump’s repeated warnings to US allies in the region, including Japan and South Korea, that they must pay more for the protection they receive from the US.

In the underworld this would simply constitute extortion, but the Americans seem to love it. “NATO countries must pay more. The United States must pay less. Very unfair!” Trump tweeted before attending the North Atlantic Treaty Organization annual summit in Brussels on Wednesday.

From the beginning of his presidency, Trump has demonstrated his displeasure with the European Union and the 29-member NATO alliance. He urged each member to allocate at least 2 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) for defense, but so far only five — the US, United Kingdom, Estonia, Greece and Poland — meet this target. Washington’s 3.6 percent of GDP that it spends on defense still outweighs the rest of NATO combined.

There are suspicions that Trump’s enthusiasm to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un last month was not just to reduce Pyongyang’s nuclear threat or to win the Nobel Peace Prize. Kim’s assurance about dismantling his entire nuclear program would justify Trump’s intention of cutting the US military presence in Japan and South Korea.

Japan has constitutional rather than financial constraints on boosting its military spending in facing China and North Korea. Seoul, meanwhile, will have to increase its defense budget, too, because no one knows when or whether the North will meet its denuclearization pledge.

Such uncertainty could spread the arms race to other parts of Asia, including Southeast Asia. A decline in US military presence, perhaps even a vacuum, on the continent could lead to proliferation of armaments purchasing.

Foreign Minister Retno LP Marsudi has brushed aside such worries, pointing to Jakarta’s close contacts and intensive consultations with Washington. But we should forget all that, because they mean nothing to Trump.

We only need to remember that for Trump what matters is simply money, money, money. We should learn from the bitter experience of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The prime minister has held talks on 30 occasions with Trump to get closer to him, but they have not spared Japan from being listed among the countries targeted by the US in its trade war.

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