Replacing NasDem Party politician Johnny G. Plate as communications and information minister is Budi Arie Setiadi, who previously served as deputy villages, disadvantaged regions and transmigration minister. His deputy minister, a new post at the ministry, will be filled by Nezar Patria, who was an expert staff member at the State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) Ministry.

Budi’s previous position was succeeded by Paiman Raharjo. Rosan P. Roeslani had to relinquish his ambassadorial post in the United States after being appointed deputy SOEs minister, replacing Pahala N. Mansury, who will assume the deputy foreign minister post. Lastly, United Development Party (PPP) politician Syaiful Rahmat Dasuki was named deputy religious affairs minister, replacing his fellow party member Zainut Tauhid, who will contest the 2024 legislative elections.

Apart from this, Jokowi also appointed former PPP chairman Djan Faridz and Indonesian envoy to South Korea Gandi Sulistiyanto to the Presidential Advisory Board (Wantimpres).

This Cabinet shake-up has seen Jokowi award key figures of his volunteer supporter groups. Budi and Paiman, for example, lead ProJo and Sedulur Jokowi respectively, with both being prominent longtime volunteer groups of Jokowi. ProJo has been especially influential in having backed Jokowi since 2013 and crucial to his victories in both the 2014 and 2019 elections.

Meanwhile, Nezar and Pahala are both from the SOEs Ministry. Rosan, also a former Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) chairman, worked alongside his longtime friend Erick as part of Jokowi’s election campaign team in 2019.

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It appears that the new Cabinet members are linked to Jokowi’s inner circle, leaving many to speculate the reasons behind this reshuffle. Firstly, Jokowi could be looking to secure the support and give back to those that were pivotal in his election wins, according to Firman Noor of the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN). Secondly, Budi’s appointment specifically could be aimed at providing Jokowi with some influence over the media as his term comes to an end. Thirdly, with the 2024 general elections just around the corner, it makes sense for Jokowi to appoint non-party figures who will solely focus on their tasks in the government.

However, if Jokowi sought to boost the performance of his Cabinet, Budi’s appointment for such a strategic position also raises questions considering he lacks the educational background, work experience and track record that make him an ideal candidate to lead the Communications and Information Ministry.

What is most interesting about this Cabinet reshuffle is that Jokowi did not appoint anyone that would explicitly benefit or “punish” any of the existing political camps backing one of the three presumptive presidential candidates, namely the PDI-P and PPP who are backing Ganjar Pranowo, the Gerindra Party and National Awakening Party (PKB) who are backing Prabowo Subianto and the NasDem Party, who has sided with the opposition parties, the Democratic Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) to support Anies Baswedan.

What’s more

After NasDem, which is part of the government coalition, announced it would side with the opposition to support Anies’ presidential bid, many assumed that a Cabinet shake-up was imminent, given that members of the coalition urged Jokowi to oust NasDem from the government. 

However, Jokowi did not use the reshuffle as an opportunity to completely remove NasDem from the Cabinet since Environment and Forestry Minister Siti Nurbaya and Agricultural Minister Syahrul Yasin Limpo, who are both NasDem politicians, retain their positions. Of course, Johnny was replaced as he is currently standing trial for corruption in the base transceiver station (BTS) case that cost the state up to Rp 8 trillion (US$534 million) in losses.

Jokowi’s relationship with NasDem chairman Surya Paloh has had its ups and downs, with the “lowest point” being when NasDem decided to endorse Anies last year. The rift between the two figures became more apparent last May when Jokowi excluded NasDem from a government coalition meeting at the State Palace. It seems the two are looking to mend their ties now as Jokowi invited Surya to the State Palace on Monday – a move that analysts posit is aimed at influencing a runoff election.

At the same time, the reshuffle has not benefited the PDI-P in any way either. It is a question of whether Jokowi is hesitant to lend any straightforward support to his own political party, and by extent, Ganjar’s presidential bid, or if Jokowi is looking to consolidate his own legacy beyond the 2024 elections, without the influence of the ruling party. 

Though Jokowi had not favored a political camp through his Cabinet reshuffle, many assumed that the President’s lack of explicit support for Ganjar was a sign that he would support Prabowo instead. This was reinforced by speculations that ProJo, following a discussion with Prabowo’s volunteer supporters, would be backing the defense minister in the spirit of continuing the development plans laid out by Jokowi.

Separately, PDI-P secretary-general Hasto Kristiyanto revealed that Jokowi formed a seven-member communication team for Ganjar’s presidential bid, which others have then assumed confirmed the President’s support for his fellow party member. 

The question that remains is how much influence does Jokowi actually still hold in the face of the 2024 elections and whether it is pivotal in helping whoever he endorses win the presidency.

What we’ve heard

According to a source close to Jokowi, the selection of new minister and deputy ministers is aimed at consolidating Jokowi’s power ahead of the 2024 elections. One indication, said one of the sources, was that Jokowi summoned both Prabowo and Erick to the Bogor State Palace prior to the reshuffle. The source added that Jokowi sought to ensure his Cabinet was filled with people he trusted. 

The same source claimed that the Cabinet shake-up also reflected Jokowi’s presidential candidate preference. ProJo held a people’s consultation wherein the participating volunteers chose to back Prabowo. However, the source added, ProJo has not openly declared support for Prabowo.

Sources close to Jokowi also said that this reshuffle also rewarded loyalists of Erick, such as Nezar, who used to be part of Erick’s special staff team, as well as Rosan. “Erick’s confidants are increasingly taking up spots in the government,” the source said.

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This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia’s political and business landscape. Access the latest edition of Tenggara Backgrounder to read the articles listed below:

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