TheJakartaPost

Please Update your browser

Your browser is out of date, and may not be compatible with our website. A list of the most popular web browsers can be found below.
Just click on the icons to get to the download page.

Jakarta Post

When will Russia re-engage Asia-Pacific?

Russia is a big country with a big "if"

Siswo Pramono (The Jakarta Post)
Jakarta
Mon, May 25, 2009

Share This Article

Change Size

When will Russia re-engage Asia-Pacific?

Russia is a big country with a big "if". If Russia's development plan works, about 70 percent of Russia's 142 million people will attain a middle class living standard by 2020 (see The Plan 2020 at www.kremlin.ru). Russia's GDP per capita will increase from the current US$12,000 to $30,000. If this happens, Russia will likely elevate itself to become the fifth largest economy after the US, China, India, Japan, and hence, regain its old status as Eurasia's preponderant power.

But Russia only strategically matters for us if her regional priority becomes the Asia-Pacific region. Despite the fact that 60 percent of Russian territory extends across northern Asia, Russia's regional priorities remain heavily anchored in Europe.

Geographical proximity matters. Russia has several first strategic circles of foreign policy, the most immediate of which covers the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), where Russia, in the words of Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, has long developed a "privileged partnership".

It is in with her immediate neighbors that Russia promotes the Eurasian Economic Community (i.e. Russian strategic relations with Belarus and Kazakhstan) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Russia's recent conflicts with the Ukraine over the usage of gas pipelines; and with Georgia, on the sovereignty of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, have strengthened Russia's grip in her "privileged" areas.

In the next circle out is the European Union (EU), which shares about 50 percent of Russia's foreign trade. Russia is the EU's main supplier of oil and natural gas. Bilaterally, Russia's main trade partners are Germany, the Netherlands and Italy.

The third circle encompasses the Euro-Atlantic Region. Russia wants the Russia-NATO Council to become a strategic forum for political dialogue. The forum is to settle delicate issues such as NATO's plan to admit the Ukraine and Georgia as members; and the US's plan to open military bases in Romania and Bulgaria, as well as to deploy missiles in Poland and the Czech Republic.

Russia is challenging these plans as most of the areas potentially encroached on by NATO make up an important web of Russian pipelines that supply natural gas to the EU, which is vital for the Russian economy.

The fourth circle out includes North America, where Russia wants to improve relations with the US and Canada, in a bid to ease, economic reasons aside, its sore relations with NATO.

As such, from the Russian pragmatic perspective, both economic opportunities and immediate security threats come from the other side of her Western borders.

Today, the Asia-Pacific region is "only" located in the fifth circle of Russian foreign policy. Russia will likely pay more attention to the region when her relationship with NATO, and thus her confidence in the security of her Western border, improves.

But Russian elites are fully aware that Russia's future is bound to the Asia Pacific because the region today accounts for 57 percent of the world's GDP, 48 percent of world trade and over 40 percent of direct foreign investments.

Russia is a member of APEC and currently chairs the Special Task Group on Mining and Metallurgy within this organization.

While APEC's share of Russia's foreign trade is "only" about 18 percent (in 2007), far bellow the share of EU, due to its geographical proximity, APEC will be important for the development of Siberia and far eastern Russia, a region rich in oil and gas.

Just like the EU, the Asia-Pacific is a large consumer of energy. And Russia, which is one of the world's main suppliers of gas, is now promoting a gas cartel that, according to Russia, would ensure uninterrupted supplies of energy to the Asia-Pacific region.

Most Russian webs of oil and gas pipelines are located in Europe; the Asia-Pacific lacks such infrastructure. Russia is thus developing the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline.

Early this year, tankers began carrying Russian gas to Japan under the Sakhalin-2 framework (a joint venture involving Russia, Japan, Great Britain and The Netherlands).

Russia has also shown great interest in building energy and transport links through North Korea to reach the market of its southern neighbor and, perhaps, the Chinese provinces in the east.

Japan and the Koreas aside, Russia is eager to cooperate with China in developing the gas business in the Asia-Pacific region.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), too, has always been on the Russian radar screen. Southeast Asia (the Indonesian archipelago in particular) hosts the sea-lanes of communications (SLOCs), which are vital for the supply of energy from Russia's Far East to potential Indian Ocean markets.

If energy is the entry point for Russia to re-engage the Asia-Pacific, some footnotes are worth considering. First and foremost, the Asia-Pacific should not be dependent on energy from one country or group of countries.

While developing energy cooperation with Russia would be a good and promising step to take, one nevertheless should remain cautious of the way Russia has combined oil and gas business with force and blackmail, as the experience of Europe, Kazakhstan, the Ukraine, and Georgia reminds us.

Second, while in the long term great improvements are highly possible, Russia's productivity, at least until 2015, will remain low due to her outdated technology, ineffective bureaucracy and poor investment climate. Heavy taxation, corruption, and nationalistic energy policies also bedevil Russia's oil and gas sectors.

The Asia-Pacific region needs to positively welcome Russia's full embrace of the region when the time comes and harness such a move to enhance cooperation for international energy security. Russia's decision to host the 2012 APEC Summit in Vladivostok can be seen as a good sign that such full re-engagement is not far away.

This article reflects the personal views of the writer, who is a researcher at the Policy Planning Agency, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Jakarta.

{

Your Opinion Matters

Share your experiences, suggestions, and any issues you've encountered on The Jakarta Post. We're here to listen.

Enter at least 30 characters
0 / 30

Thank You

Thank you for sharing your thoughts. We appreciate your feedback.