T

he final F1 test session in Barcelona was the last chance for us to try to work out who is hot and who is not - and the simple fact is that, as in the previous two seasons, the difference in ultimate performance between the top teams is almost too close to call.

We can probably predict that Bahrain's race winner will come from one of four teams; McLaren, Red Bull, Ferrari or Mercedes.

Ironically the rules that restricted pre-season testing to save money have given the advantage to the established front runners.

With only fifteen days of testing allowed, and ten of them compromised by bad weather and rain-soaked tracks, the teams with the biggest design and production resources have inevitably had an advantage. However there still may be surprises in store.

Lewis Hamilton's McLaren MP4-25 headed the timesheets by the tiniest of margins when the teams all carried out qualifying simulations at the end of the Barcelona test.

However a look at the McLaren, with its thin, high nose, heavily sculpted sidepods and complex front and rear wings, reveals a car in which the aerodynamicists have had a field day.

In comparison the Red Bull and Ferrari cars look simpler, and more user-friendly. Last year Ferrari learned the hard lesson, that while their car was theoretically the fastest on track, it turned out to be so complex and hard to drive that even Railkkonen and Massa struggled for competitiveness.

This year the Ferrari looks a much happier package and in comparison to Hamilton's sometimes ragged, wheel-locking, kerb-hopping test laps in Barcelona, there was never a time when the Ferrari looked anything other than smooth - and fast.

Likewise the Red Bull looked like a car that its drivers were enjoying. So much so that Sebastian Vettel simply couldn't resist bounding over rumble strips, clipping apexes and hanging the tail out. If there is one driver who simply oozes self confidence it is Vettel - and don't underestimate Webber either.

Meanwhile Michael Schumacher is taking great pains to handle expectations of an instantly victorious comeback. Both in and out of his new silver Mercedes, I have no doubts that Michael is every bit as capable as when he retired at the end of 2006.

However even Schumi admitted that "we are not, competitively, in the position where we would like to be, in order to win." But as Michael also concluded, "testing is one thing, races are another thing."

As well as the "big four", watch out for a couple of teams that might spring surprises. One is Williams, who are almost certain to be the top team running the Cosworth "customer" engine this season.

The FW32 has consistently looked good, particularly on lightly-fuelled qualifying runs where their new rookie driver, GP2 champion Nico Hulkenberg has proved every bit as quick, if not quicker, than his experienced team-mate Rubens Barrichello.

I'm less sure about the Renault, Sauber and Toro Rosso teams. Renault have a star driver in Robert Kubica, but still seem to have performance to make up and frankly, the Sauber looked a twitchy handful every time I saw it on the track. Toro Rosso in contrast has a gem of a car, but I am not too sure how much testing feedback can be gained from the relatively inexperienced pairing of Buemi and Alguersuari.

I will make a rash prediction too, that Force India has the machinery to snatch a surprise first race victory this season. I suspect that as last year, the team will focus their efforts on specific races, perhaps the low downforce, low drag tracks like Spa and Monza. It certainly makes sense for a team with fewer resources than the big boys.

Indian racing fans may also have something else to cheer as Karun Chandhok makes the transition from GP2 (and the commentator's chair) to the newly-formed Hispania Racing Team. Don't get too excited too soon, the team's late start will mean they will arrive in Bahrain with a totally untested and untried new car.

The two other new teams we have seen on track have demonstrated the trials and tribulations you always get with unproven machinery. Both Virgin Racing and Lotus Racing still lack the pace to trouble even mid-field teams, but there will be an interesting battle between three "newbie" teams down at the back.

So who is my tip for the top in Bahrain? The track has favored Ferrari in the past, so I will make a guess at Alonso - but then again, Massa? Or a Red Bull. or a McLaren. or Mercedes could equally be in the frame!