Cancun, a high-end coastal resort area in Mexico, endeavors to pick up the pieces after the collapse of the 2009 conference in Copenhagen, which was then billed as “the last chance to save the planet”. More than 100 heads of government converged in the Danish capital. They had the huge hope they would ink an agreement for legally binding deep cuts in carbon gas emissions to manage global warming.

In failure and frustration, they could not reach consensus for a mandatory scheme to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that come from fossil-fuel driven industry and motor vehicles, as well as from deforestation and land use.

Now in Cancun the majority of the world’s leaders are staying away. They don’t want to return home red-faced without any substantive outcome. Any outcome from Cancun is being downplayed.

Indeed, the prognosis for Cancun is no legally binding climate pact, but voluntary burden sharing may be on the table. No major deal could be reached without the world’s two top emitters of carbon dioxide from use of fossil fuels, China and the United States.  

One official who set no ambitious targets in Cancun is United Nations climate chief Christiana Figueres of Costa Rica. She believes a single, definitive, all encompassing climate deal is unlikely in her lifetime.

Similarly, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon sees no binding deal coming out this year.

Some results could be reached. These cover mini deals in transfer of new technology, a mechanism to monitor, verify and report emissions, setting up a climate fund amounting up to US$100 billion by 2020, a plan to reduce emissions in the world’s rain forests and a multitude of bilateral agreements on the sidelines.

So what are Indonesia’s hopes in Cancun?  In a pre-departure press conference, Rachmat Witoelar, the President’s special envoy on climate change, spelled out desired outcomes in at least four areas. First is deep cuts in emissions by developed countries with an attached compliance mechanism.

Second is voluntary cuts by developing countries. Third is a model in the scheme to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD). Fourth is new funds to help developing nations.

If these expectations are not met and not included in the “Cancun Outcomes”, Indonesia should pursue separate bilateral deals. Indonesia has bilateral cooperation in its REDD program.

The US is unlikely to sign to a legally binding agreement without approval from its Congress, but it is open to enter bilateral cooperation, said Witoelar, Indonesia’s environment minister from 2004-2009.

Indonesia has vast tracts of tropical rainforest in Sumatra, Kalimantan and Papua. REDD+ is a major climate program Indonesia has undertaken. REDD+ goes beyond prevention of tree cutting and adds tree planting, sustaining forests, conserving biodiversity and fighting poverty in forest communities.

Jakarta aims to reduce carbon emissions on its own by 26 percent against a “business as usual” estimate of emissions in 2020. It can deepen the cut to 41 percent with international funding. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono announced this voluntary initiative in emissions reduction at the G20 summit in Pittsburgh in September 2009, and again in Copenhagen in December 2009.

“Indonesia can provide an example. We do so by not cheating. We can be credible by example,” exclaimed Agus Purnomo, the President’s climate change adviser and a key negotiator in Cancun.  

REDD+ is the centerpiece in Indonesia’s national strategy on climate change now being drafted.

Whatever the mechanism and the rules set in a national strategy, which could be finalized by mid-2011, it is clear that REDD+ must be promoted effectively to all stakeholders, particularly the people for whom it would mean most, the local forest communities.    

Let them know what is in it for them, the benefits and the costs. Does REDD+ mean forest residents may not chop down trees? If not, what do they get in compensation?

A domestic climate plan may be more important than an international agreement, binding or nonbinding. One country. One climate. One plan.

Jakarta aims to reduce carbon emissions on its own by 26 percent against a “business as usual” estimate of emissions in 2020.


The writer is a journalism instructor at the Dr. Soetomo Press Institute (LPDS), in Jakarta.

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