G

uess what? New Zealand are the favorites to win the Rugby World Cup.

No surprises really, they always are, and always have been, since the competition started in 1987, when they did indeed win it.

Since then, however, their performances at the event which takes place every four years, have invariably fallen short of expectations, and they have failed to add to their number of titles.

That number, coming in at one, is less than Tri-Nations rivals Australia and South Africa, and is a source of humiliation and even despair for the legion of All Blacks fans.

Rugby in New Zealand is a religion — the population live it and breathe it — and there is no disputing that the national rugby team has dominated the world rankings for longer than anyone can remember.

The fact that the All Blacks have not emerged triumphant from rugby’s showcase tournament in 20 years (or five editions, if you prefer) has mystified the sport’s aficionados, and deflated New Zealand’s citizens in equal measure.

Yes, they have come close — they were finalists in 1995, when they were beaten by South Africa —
an event so significant, that a bunch of people decided to make a really bad film about it (hence the title of this piece … in case you were wondering).

Since then though, despite going in to each and every tournament as red hot favorites, or stone cold certainties (depending on your analogous temperature of choice), they have made premature departures, leaving the tournament bloodied, and unfortunately for them, also bowed.

It’s led to the All Blacks being branded as “chokers”, a wonderful description for opponents to level; a difficult one to take on the chin when it’s being thrown at you. I for one kind of hope that the All Blacks do win the tournament, since dealing with a bunch of disgruntled, potentially suicidal Kiwis every four years can be ... messy.

Interestingly, an online educational survey in New Zealand, “CensusAtSchool”, reflected the fact that 83 percent of young respondents expected the All Blacks to make the final of the competition, while only 41 percent thought that they would actually go on to win it.

This contrasts with a UMR Research Ltd. poll that found 77 percent of New Zealand’s adults (parents, presumably, of at least some of the aforementioned children) predicting an All Blacks success story.

The results are surprising. One would have thought that the kids would have been all wide-eyed and dreamy, full of youthful hope and exuberance, while the adults tempered their optimism with the experience of regular disappointment.

Apparently, this is not so, reflecting perhaps the extent to which the “chokers” tag is resonant among the younger generation.

If the All Blacks do fail to turn up for their date with destiny, then who will be crowned World Champions come Sunday October the 23rd?

History would suggest that the victor will come from one of South Africa, Australia and England — although France can never be written off (unless it’s by the French themselves).

Australia have won it twice; so too South Africa, with England’s sole triumph coming in 2003, and New Zealand, as mentioned earlier, winning the inaugural competition in 1987.

South Africa are always strong, and fierce competitors to boot. Their squad for the September/October tournament though, is aging somewhat, and this is likely to produce one of two outcomes.

Either the current crop — many hardened and wizened souls with masses of experience — will gird their loins for a final tilt at immortality and surprise us all, or they will be left clutching memories of bygone days and lamenting the fact that they are not quite as fast/strong/mobile, as they once were.

England punched above their weight by making the Final four years ago, when they were simply outmuscled and out-thought by South Africa.

Not many pundits feel that they have sufficient quality this time round to make a huge impression, although they have confounded expectations in the past. It’s an “English thing”, and works the other way too — just ask football fans.

Australia seem to have discovered (or maybe “rediscovered”) their mojo at just the right time, and boasting the youngest squad in the 20-team tournament, they will enter the fray with spirits soaring, and very well set to do some significant damage.

The thing about rugby union is that it is, almost invariably, easier to predict than many other team sports.

Power is almost everything, and that power is provided by the forwards. If the forwards don’t do their jobs properly and secure the ball, you could have the most talented bunch of backs in the world game, but they’re not going to see enough of the ball to make a difference.

South Africa won two World Cup finals without scoring a try — a testament to their power up front, and also their pragmatism when it comes to winning the games that really matter. This has never been the New Zealand way, which may account in some part for past failures.

If New Zealand do win it this year, I’ll be surprised.

If New Zealand don’t win it this year ... I’ll be even more surprised.   

Catch Andrew Leci on ESPN’s SportsCenter every weekday at for updates on the Rugby World Cup