T

he death of Muammar Qaddafi has elicited mixed reactions from the world’s political leaders. Most Western leaders have responded positively, while some have denounced the dictator’s brutal murder.

The bulk of world leadership, however, has decided to take a wait-and-see approach to this issue. President Nicolas Sarkozy of France explicitly stated that the death of Qaddafi has opened a new chapter of democracy in Libya.

Is it realistic to expect that democracy will prevail in Libya? The country is home to 6.6 million people who hail from at least 140 tribes and clans. The population of Libya is predominantly Muslim. Islam, therefore, becomes a way of life for the Libyan people. A persistent source of trouble for Libya has been its tribal culture. At this point, it should be acknowledged that Qaddafi’s 42-year authoritarian regime had been able to stabilize the country by employing a mixture of patronage and punishment.

The fall of the Qaddafi regime has opened a window of opportunity for a transition toward democracy. Hence, in the context of Libya’s political culture, the question of whether Libya’s brand of Islam is compatible with democracy becomes the next major query to be explored.

In Libya, as is also the case in the Middle East, there are generally two opposite schools of thought. One school of thought believes that Arab and Muslim ideologies are incompatible with the basic values of democracy such as freedom, pluralism, participation, equality of opportunity and justice. This belief is in line with the conventional view that “democracies are strangers to the Middle East.” In this regard, it will not be easy to establish a liberal democratic system in a Muslim country such as Libya.

Abdelmajid Habibi, a political leader of the Tahrir Party in Tunisia, is one of the proponents of political Islam. He said, “Democracy is a way of life. Islam is a different way of life. The principal idea of democracy is to separate religion from politics so man can choose his own law on Earth. Islam liberates mankind by putting the whole world under a divine order. Man is submitted to God.” This statement implies that Islam and democracy have their own respective domains. Islam and democracy are two separate ideologies.

Another school of thought says that Islam and democracy are compatible. The Freedom House Report believes that recent history shows that Islam is not inherently incompatible with democracy and democratic values.

Turkey, for example, adopts quasi-secularism but at the same time accepts Islam as the official religion. Other countries in the Middle East such as Bahrain, Jordan and Lebanon have also adopted “minimum requirements of democratic values” such as freedom.

It is not an exaggeration to refer to Indonesia as the world’s largest predominantly Muslim country as a model of coexistence between Islam and democracy. Despite a certain degree of intolerance demonstrated by hard-line Islamic groups, democracy has flourished in culturally diverse Indonesia.

The future direction of Libya will depend upon the will of Libya’s interim government and its people. Libya has a higher literacy rate than its neighbors. Its actual GDP stood at US$85.04 billion in 2009. These two factors are assets for democracy.

For Libya, the challenge lies in its willingness to blend Islam with democracy and in choosing what sort of democracy will be adopted. Will they accept a Western model of government or other forms of democracy such as democratic socialism?

Authors like Samuel Huntington and Elie Kedourie are of the view that the political, economic and cultural conditions prevalent in individual states of the region did not in any way encourage the development of liberal democratic models of government and politics.

Most elites of the Middle East and North Africa consider democracy a western “peculiarity”. They believe that Arab/Islamic civilization is uniquely exceptional in its undemocratic tendencies and has created a political culture that prevents them from democratizing in a meaningful manner.

Nevertheless, if democracy is interpreted as merely more open elections it will be easy for Libya to proceed with democratization, as happened in Egypt and Tunisia. However, democratization encompasses more than general elections. It entails an expansion of political participation of citizens in public policy making and control.

Will Libya’s new political elites be ready to transform its people to the level of genuine democracy? In the regional context, it is doubtful if such democracy will result in the expansion of public freedom through the recognition and protection of civil and political liberties. These ideas will be challenged by the establishment.

Democracy in the Middle East and North Africa should not wholly co-opt Western democracy, although it would be useful if some of their principles are adopted in line with local culture and tradition.

For Libya, the question of whether or not it will become a democratic country is up to them to decide. Islam could be either a hindering or a driving factor for democracy. Only the ballot results in a fair election will tell. Libya is now at the crossroads. It seems that the future path to democracy in Libya will be a long and winding road ahead.

The writer is an Indonesian diplomat, who is currently preparing a book, The Dynamics of Democratization in Developing Countries. The opinions expressed are his own.