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em>A slew of violent incidents ahead of Monday’s local election in Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam has served as a test of the province’s dual success stories of ending more than 30 years of separatist conflict and dealing with massive post-tsunami reconstruction efforts financed mostly by international donors. The Jakarta Post’s Nani Afrida explores how the election will unfold:

Zahara is ready to cast her ballot paper to appoint Aceh’s new governor on April 9.

“I’ve made up my mind. I believe my choice will be the winner in the election,” said Zahara, 45, who lives in Lamteuba village, a stronghold of the former Free Aceh Movement (GAM).

Zahara said that her uncle, father, sister and brother would select the same candidate as they were sure their choice would be best for Aceh’s future.

“This is probably what we call family instinct,” she laughed.

Even though many people like Zahara are ready to participate as voters in the election, other citizens like Maliki say they are still confused who to vote for on Monday.

Maliki, a meatball seller in North Aceh, is afraid a wrong choice could be bad for him and his family.

“We have many rumors here that may lead us to select certain candidates,” Maliki said, refusing to give further information due to security concerns.

Aceh will hold direct local elections on April 9 to appoint the governor, deputy and 17 pairs of local mayors.

This is the second direct election for Aceh since the Helsinki peace agreement in 2005. The province held its first election to appoint a governor and 19 local leaders in 2006.

The number of candidates in 2006 reached 240 pairs, higher than the 137 candidates pairs participating in the 2012 race.

Although the number of candidates joining the election is smaller than five years ago, threats of intimidation are feared to be higher, as members of GAM have been divided into two groups, with their respective leaders joining the election.

The biggest local party in Aceh, the Aceh Party, has nominated GAM leader Zaini Abdullah and former GAM commander Muzakir Manaf as Aceh governor and deputy governor respectively.

The party, which occupies 60 percent of seats in the regional legislature, claimed that the previous governor Irwandi Yusuf had failed to bring prosperity to Aceh.

Meanwhile, the other GAM group, which comprises former field combatants, supports Irwandi, who was a GAM negotiator in the Helsinki peace talks, to run for the election as an independent candidate. Irwandi has appointed the former head of Aceh’s public works agency as his running mate.

The frictions between GAM members have created many problems in Aceh.

The Aceh Election Independent Commission (KIP) had to postpone the election four times because of the dispute involving the Aceh Party, which split into supporters of Irwandi, the independent candidate, and Zaini, the party’s candidate.

The legal battle over whether Irwandi could run on an independent ticket violated the Aceh Governance Law, which said independent candidates were only accepted for the first election since the Helsinki agreement, ended in a Supreme Court ruling that favored Irwandi.

As both sides waited for the legal battle to end, each group of supporters resorted to destroying each others’ candidate banners, torturing rival campaign team members or intimidating residents suspected of supporting their rivals.

Apart from Zaini and Irwandi, the three other candidates for governor are prominent Aceh ulema Abu Lampisang, state Aceh University Syiah Kuala rector Darni Daud and Irwandi’s former deputy governor Muhammad Nazar.

Still, Zaini and Irwandi are dominant compared to other candidates.

Security measures ahead of Monday’s vote include 7,930 police personnel or two-thirds of the police force in the province.

Police are also deploying 728 police personnel from outside Aceh and 1,749 soldiers.

KIP has provided 9,786 polling stations throughout Aceh; around 5,000 of them are in Pidie and North Aceh, both categorized as high-risk zones regarding security.

The Home Ministry has allocated Monday, April 9, as a local holiday in Aceh to help ensure conducive conditions for polling day.

“This is a long weekend for the Acehnese, but we feel nervous for the result. Hopefully it will be good for all of us,” said Idar, a Banda Aceh resident.

Although the Acehnese have faced the shadow of intimidation ahead of voting, many believe that they will be able to deal with the pressure as they have become used to terror.

“A divided GAM is not our concern. The important thing is to select a leader who cares for us and brings Aceh to a better future,” Zahara said.

Many Acehnese have attended several campaigns held by governor candidates, before the campaign period expired on Thursday, April 5.

They recalled that campaign events held by Irwandi and his rival Zaini were always packed with thousands of people, including women and children, compared to other candidates.

“People want to see Irwandi and Zaini. They are quite popular here compared with other candidates,” Zahara said.

Both candidates are similarly offering job creation, prosperity, free education and health services.

“If you ask me who will win this election, it’s a tough question. Both Irwandi and Zaini can win, but it will depend on the Acehnese,” said an Aceh expert, Teuku Kemal Fasya. The Occidental Research Institute (ORI), a local research institution in Aceh, has predicted that Zaini–Muzakir will win, as 36 percent of village figures preferred them instead of Irwandi–Muhyan (24 percent).

The recent ten-day survey showed that 40 percent of civil servants tended to prefer Zaini–Muzakir, while Irwandi–Muhyan were only predicted to gain 22 percent of civil servants’ votes.

Zaini–Muzakir were also the favorite pair of fishermen, with 56 percent of them saying they would choose the pair.

ORI surveyed 3,728 respondents in 264 districts in Aceh since March 10.

“There are many changes in the survey after Zaini–Muzakir listed themselves as candidates. Previously, Irwandi and Muhammad Nazar were competing in the survey,” Maimun Bin Lukman, the ORI director said.

Maimun added that Acehnese hoped their choice would improve human resources in the province through free education and health services, as well as to create a transparent and accountable bureaucracy.

Days before the election, many had yet to receive information on whether they were registered to vote or not.

“Until now we haven’t received any invitation. We’re unsure if we can vote,” said Ali, a Beureuneun district resident in Pidie regency.

“Perhaps we will get the information a day before election, hopefully,” another citizen from Pidie said, adding that he was confused whether to wait for his invitation or just go to the polling station directly.

The government is still busy distributing election logistics like ballot papers, invitations and election boxes. Several remote areas in Simeuleu Island and South Aceh are now facing distribution problems due to insufficient budgets.

In some areas, KIP is also complaining about the budget, which has yet to be distributed to the election committees in the field, causing a lack of preparation.

The election postponements have been blamed for swelling the budget.