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Insight: Hopeful messages from the Brunei summit

The outcome of the 22nd ASEAN summit in Brunei last week, like the outcome of any other ASEAN summit, received a mixed assessment from media and experts alike

Rizal Sukma (The Jakarta Post)
Jakarta
Tue, April 30, 2013

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Insight: Hopeful messages from the Brunei summit

T

he outcome of the 22nd ASEAN summit in Brunei last week, like the outcome of any other ASEAN summit, received a mixed assessment from media and experts alike. On the economic cooperation front, pessimism was expressed that ASEAN would not be able to meet its deadline to form the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by 2015.

On the political security front, however, the outcome has exceeded expectations, especially if we remember when ASEAN under Cambodia failed to issue a joint communique at its Foreign Ministers'€™ Meeting (AMM) in July 2012.

Despite the mixed outcome of the summit, ASEAN seems to be back in the habit of delivering hopeful messages after its high-level leaders meetings. ASEAN'€™s leaders, while recognizing the difficulties in achieving the AEC, were hopeful that the plan to integrate the region '€” which promises to transform ASEAN into a single market and production base, would be complete by the end of 2015.

Even Indonesia, which has been accused of backtracking, promised that it would take necessary measures to ensure its readiness to embrace the plan.

On the political security front, the ASEAN summit ended on a positive note on the issue that attracted the most media attention: the South China Sea. While there was no clear indication as to how soon this issue would be resolved, ASEAN leaders demonstrated a sense of institutional unity and achieved a unity of purpose.

They reiterated ASEAN'€™s commitment to a peaceful resolution of the dispute, expressing a collective wish to engage China in implementing joint cooperative activities in the South China Sea and finding ways for an early conclusion on the Code of Conduct (CoC).

For some, this message seems trivial. However, we need to realize that the South China Sea issue constituted a main topic for the summit, and this alone suggests that Brunei has done a great job in persuading all 10 ASEAN member nations not to sweep the issue under the carpet.

More importantly, unlike the 20th and 21st summits in Cambodia, there was no division among ASEAN member nations on the importance of tackling the issue. Therefore, the outcome of the summit clearly reflected a consensus on the need for an ASEAN common stand on the South China Sea.

Of course, it is now up to China to respond by offering its own positive attitude to ASEAN'€™s goodwill and collective desire. It is true that China has been reluctant to engage ASEAN as a collective entity on the issue, preferring to negotiate bilaterally with the four ASEAN claimant states. However, as ASEAN leaders have made clear, the grouping would also support any initiative to resolve overlapping claims on a bilateral basis.

At the same time, leaders also reiterated that it was the collective responsibility of ASEAN and China to ensure that the dispute never becomes an armed conflict. This will require all sides to start discussing the CoC as the most desirable mechanism to prevent conflicts and manage crises whenever they arise.

It is true that there is more to ASEAN-China relations than the South China Sea issue. However, this is an issue that could become a pebble in the shoe of ASEAN-China relations if not managed early on. Indeed, recent developments already suggest how this issue may have a negative effect on the overall relationship between China and some ASEAN claimant states.

Therefore, after the demonstration of ASEAN'€™s goodwill at the Brunei summit, it would be difficult for ASEAN to understand if China still refuses to engage ASEAN on a formal discussion on the CoC. China'€™s positive response to ASEAN'€™s invitation would certainly contribute to peace and stability in the region.

On other issue of direct relevance to ASEAN'€™s future, the summit also took note about ASEAN'€™s direction after 2015. The leaders tasked ASEAN'€™s Community Councils '€œto initiate work on a post-2015 vision'€ to be discussed at the 23rd ASEAN Summit. This is a noble and challenging invitation, and too important to be left to officials at foreign ministries alone. It requires the collective involvement of all ASEAN stakeholders. The entire ASEAN community '€” officials, academics, civil society organizations, the business community and the media '€” should take up this invitation.

And, as the ASEAN chair for 2013, Brunei has laid down the foundation for ASEAN to move beyond 2015. As the 23rd ASEAN Summit is just six months away, we all should start working to generate ideas and proposals on the future path that ASEAN should take.

The writer is executive director of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta.

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