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rare encounter recently took place when Great Indonesia Movement (Gerindra) Party chairman Prabowo Subianto shook hands with the Regional Representatives Council (DPD) Speaker Irman Gusman during a reception hosted by Russian Ambassador to Indonesia Mikhail Galuzin to celebrate Russia Day on June 12.

Irman had just finished delivering a speech on Russia-Indonesia relations, when Prabowo stepped forward to congratulate him for, in his words, '€œsuch a very good speech'€ that drew applause from the audience. Also present were Indonesian Cabinet ministers, ambassadors, military patrons, international business leaders and political observers.

Prabowo'€™s acknowledgement of Irman'€™s speech seemed to be a genuine expression instead of a pre-designed political gesture. Prabowo must have had a strong reason for agreeing with Irman that Jakarta-Moscow relations must be upgraded to the next level. And that indeed was the emphasis of Irman'€™s speech.

As a presidential aspirant, Prabowo needs to maintain cordial relations with the world'€™s major centers of power, so drawing himself closer to Moscow would be a smart maneuver that is long overdue. During the reign of his former father-in-law, Soeharto, progress in Jakarta-Moscow relations was rather slow.

Irman acknowledged in his speech: '€œ[In the past], Indonesia sometimes forgot Russia, but Russians have never forgotten us.'€

The most candid evidence of Russian sincerity, Irman said, was when cosmonaut Gregory Grechko and several other Russian public figures sang the popular Indonesian song '€œRayuan Pulau Kelapa'€ in Russian during a dinner at the residence of Indonesian Ambassador to Russia Djauhari Oratmangun late last month.

That was after Irman had met with the Council of Russian Federation chairwoman Valentina Matvienko, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and several other Russian leaders.

Irman'€™s speech aside, the mass media were quick to give added value and ballast to Prabowo'€™s unprecedented encounter with Irman.

This is because in the run up to the July 2014 presidential election, both Prabowo and Irman have been widely touted as potential candidates that could team up, according to some political analysts.

Irman may join the ruling Democratic Party'€™s convention in August and, if he wins, with such a huge political machine on his side he will be one of the strongest candidates in the next presidential race.

Prabowo'€™s younger brother Hashim Djojohadikusumo, a noted businessman and vice chairman of Gerindra, had already congratulated Irman for an inspiring speech he delivered to a United States-Indonesia Society (USINDO) luncheon in Washington, DC on May 21.

Irman and Hashim sat at the same table with USINDO president David Merrill and Indonesian Ambassador to the US Dino Patti Djalal during the luncheon and shared light moments together for more than two hours.

During the Russia Day reception in Jakarta, Hashim and Irman again shared the same table '€” though this time with the Russian ambassador '€” and they appeared to be very friendly.

Prabowo is a former commander of the Army'€™s Special Forces (Kopassus), which on April 2 bestowed upon Irman the first '€œspecial civilian honorary membership of Kopassus'€ at the blessing of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. A week later, Yudhoyono invited Irman to join the ruling party'€™s convention.

So, how close will the Prabowo-Hashim duo get to Irman ahead of the next presidential election? Could it be just a series of natural encounters, or does each side actually have some kind of hidden intention for 2014 that hints at future collaboration?

Will Irman and Prabowo make a good pair for the 2014 election, or are they going to confront each other?

To answer such questions, one must first of all realize that despite the fact Prabowo has ranked very high in opinion polls, whether or not he can get a ticket to enter the race depends on whether his party can perform well and set up a coalition after the April 2014 legislative election to pass the 20-25 percent presidential threshold.

Irman'€™s biggest challenge now is how to secure a ticket from the ruling Democratic Party. He needs to go all-out, mobilizing all his political vehicles, including mass and professional organizations, apart from 131 DPD senators who represent tens of millions of voters in 33 provinces.

If both of them succeed, they will compete in the next presidential race. But if one of them should fail, that person could then be the running mate for the other.

Capacity-wise, an Irman-Prabowo presidential pair could be ideal given that they complement each other. Irman has a proven record of entrepreneurial, organizational and state leadership with vast international experience, while Prabowo has strong character and decisiveness.

In recent months the two leaders have appeared quite frequently on television and in print media '€” although separately '€” while on social media networks their names keep cropping up in people'€™s minds due to their intense maneuvering.

What would happen if both of them failed to join the presidential race? Here'€™s a likely scenario: Irman might continue to be on a par with whoever next sits in the presidential chair, because in the state hierarchy the position of chairman of the DPD is already as high as that of the Indonesian president.

But for Prabowo, the 2014 presidential election could be his last best chance to reach the presidential peak. Five to 10 years from now, he will be too old to fight younger candidates.

Could we say that Prabowo'€™s encounter with Irman during Russia Day was a prelude to their future collaboration? Time will tell, but the fact remains that they are approaching each other.
 
The writer is a socio-political observer living in Jakarta.