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upporters say he is a true contender for national leadership. Detractors claim he is but a pretender. Without a doubt though, all would agree that he is a wily popularity vendor.

Conventional wisdom says that if he were to run now on a presidential ticket, Jakarta Governor Joko '€œJokowi'€ Widodo would sweep the elections. Pollsters support this assumption, with the governor consistently being favored across all surveys.

A bottom-up groundswell of popularity from voters looking for change, a fresh face and a style of leadership juxtaposed to the vacillating lumber of the status quo.

Some cite a 2008 Obama-style popularity upsurge.

But we do not have to look that far, closer to home it is akin to the buzz generated by Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono ahead of the 2004 presidential election. The main difference being the former mayor of Surakarta is not renowned for his penchant for crooning.

But Indonesian high politics, like most politics everywhere, is largely detached from the whim of popular swell. A closed system designed to preserve exclusivism in the political sphere whereby voters can choose from the menu but not what goes on it.

At least in a restaurant analogy there is the option of moving to a different bistro.

Hence, Jokowi maybe the most popular dish in town, but if he is not put on the menu it'€™s not going to get served.

More precisely, how does one get on the presidential ticket from a party that has won 20 percent of seats in the House of Representative or 25 percent the vote in the general election?

The irony to this conundrum for '€œchange'€ lies with a past icon of reformasi who just 18-months ago was considered passé, and a party that remains largely feudal: Ibu Megawati Soekarnoputri and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).

The future of the nation hinging on what '€œmother knows best'€.

Despite the polls, the outpouring of enthusiasm, hunger for a leader that does not hark back 14-years ago, or what some well-connected know-it-all individual may say, it really is all up to Ibu, and maybe Ibu has not even made up her mind yet.

She has the weight of history, the nation, the Sukarno name, fate of her loyalists and her own ambition to ponder.

The psychological load of never having won an election, or having only served as president by default, must fuel ambition.

The realization that if she anoints Jokowi, she will gradually be rendered obsolete.

Many of her loyal inner circle describe Jokowi as a party outsider, having never been within the central executive board. He will retain fidelity to Megawati and the PDI-P in general, but holds no allegiance nor is indebted to the established party elite.

At the outset he may defer to Megawati'€™s experienced aids for advice, but Jokowi as governor has shown that he will do what he thinks is best, disregarding campaign alliances or transactional politics.

No one believes Jokowi could jump ship either even if he was not nominated by the PDI-P. He is no Johnny-come-lately with the habit of political flea jumping the way his deputy, Basuki '€œAhok'€ Tjahaja Purnama did from the New Indonesia Alliance Party (PIB) to Golkar and then Gerindra.

In the time honored custom of Indonesian political culture, its candidates have to show a degree of reverence against ambition, pretending not to want what they actually covet.

It'€™s '€œhip'€ not to appear too eager for power and position. Thus, a betrayal of the PDI-P would be a high- risk gamble for Jokowi that would be divisive to his public persona.

In five months time, Indonesia will hear noisy electioneering and lurid promises as the campaign season kicks in.

But the loudest words will be the stage-whisper, all in Megawati'€™s ear, between those encouraging her to run and others lobbying her blessing for '€œchange'€.