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Dems'€™ maneuver could make it three rounds

The deadline for the registration of presidential-vice presidential tickets is tomorrow

The Jakarta Post
Mon, May 19, 2014 Published on May. 19, 2014 Published on 2014-05-19T11:05:54+07:00

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Dems'€™ maneuver could make it three rounds

T

he deadline for the registration of presidential-vice presidential tickets is tomorrow. But yet, none of the political parties leading the coalition talks have announced confirmed pairings. The Jakarta Post'€™s Bagus BT Saragih and Hasyim Widhiarto provide an analysis into the issue, plus a report on the new faces in the House of Representatives and their roles and functions as lawmakers.

Golkar Party chairman Aburizal Bakrie looked surprised when he received a unique greeting by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, the host of the meeting at the State Palace, last Wednesday.

'€œPak Aburizal, these journalists are wondering whether there will be two or three pairs of [presidential] candidates,'€ Yudhoyono said, which was met with the light laughter of journalists.

However, the reporters also shared Aburizal'€™s astonishment, as they had not pressed Yudhoyono to ask Aburizal that question. They wondered: '€œWhat kind of '€˜code'€™ was Yudhoyono using to cover the true meaning of his statement?'€

But the lingering astonishment was quick to fade, as soon as the subject of the meeting was revealed.

'€œ[The two] were discussing the possibility of nominating the third candidate pairing. This is an option we must seriously consider. Some surveys have shown that the public want more than two candidates,'€ secretary of the Dem'€™s supreme assembly, Jero Wacik, said two days later.

Among the top five parties emerging from the April 9 legislative election, as of Sunday afternoon, only Golkar and the Democrats are yet to decide on what political path to take toward the July 9 presidential election.

Jero admitted that Yudhoyono, in his capacity as party'€™s chairman, had been seeking to form an axis with Golkar to compete with the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle'€™s (PDI-P) camp, which supports Joko '€œJokowi'€ Widodo, and the Gerindra Party, which champions Prabowo Subianto.

'€œSome pollsters also showed that about 40 percent of respondents preferred neither candidate on offer. This shows there is potential for a third candidate,'€ Jero said.

Sunday, arguably, was the most crucial day for coalition maneuvers. Not only were both the Democratis and Golkar holding their executive meetings to decide on their political direction for the presidential election, the PDI-P was also due to have announced Jokowi'€™s running mate.

Sources said it was almost certain that former vice president Jusuf Kalla, who is also Aburizal'€™s predecessor as Golkar chairman, would be paired with Jokowi.

Should this materialize, Golkar may abandon siding with the Democrats and instead join the PDI-P.

Jero acknowledged it was not easy to come up with presidential-vice presidential candidates that had the potential of beating Jokowi and Prabowo.

Jero was among the so-called '€œTeam of six'€, which was established after the Aburizal-Yudhoyono meeting that consisted of three from each side. The two other Democrats are executive chairman Syariefuddin Hasan and secretary-general Edhie Baskoro Yudhoyono.

Representing Golkar in the team are deputy chairman Sharif Cicip Sutarjo, secretary-general Idrus Marham and senior member MS Hidayat.

Speaking about arithmetic politics, the alliance may indeed look promising. Together, they would control at least 152 seats or 27.14 percent of the House of Representatives, more than enough to nominate a presidential candidate.

Golkar also holds the status of the most experienced party while the ruling Democrats have control of the country'€™s administration: Both factors should boost the supremacy of the possible third contestant.

But such optimism could die down quickly when it comes to who to nominate.

Syariefuddin admitted the team spoke about nominating Aburizal and pairing him with Pramono Edhie Wibowo, Yudhoyono'€™s son in-law. The former Army chief has been a member of the Democratic Party for less than a year.

Another option was Golkar'€™s Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X paired with someone from the Dems'€™ presidential convention.

But the convention itself concluded with an anti-climax, with the '€œchampion'€, State-Owned Enterprises Minister Dahlan Iskan, absent from the closing ceremony Friday.

Dahlan was said to be disappointed over the party'€™s decision to not nominate him as a presidential or vice-presidential candidate.

Yudhoyono, in his speech, admitted that none of the convention'€™s 11 participants could match Jokowi and Prabowo.

Political analyst from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), Ikrar Nusa Bhakti, suspected that Yudhoyono'€™s invitation to Golkar to form an alliance was merely a strategy to extend the time available for the ruling party to intensify its political negotiation.

'€œWith three running candidates, the chance of a second round is quite big. The Democrats might actually want to use the spare time between the first and second rounds to seek '€˜political offers'€™ from either Jokowi or Prabowo, as the two might desperately need the extra support to secure a victory in the second round,'€ he said.

According to Ikrar, Golkar may eventually opt to support Jokowi.

'€œIn this case, the Democrats could emerge a totally neutral party. Well, the option for Yudhoyono to support Jokowi is still there, albeit small,'€ he said.

Ikrar'€™s arguments were actually supported by several events attended by Golkar elite.

On Tuesday, for example, Aburizal made a joint public appearance with Jokowi in Gembrong Market, Central Jakarta, indicating that he would support the latter'€™s candidacy.

The next day, Golkar deputy chairman Fadel Muhammad was present at the official declaration of Jokowi'€™s presidential nomination.

Golkar advisory council deputy head Luhut Binsar Panjaitan admitted that Golkar'€™s decision to support Jokowi was an attempt to preserve its long-time tradition of being part of the ruling government.

'€œGolkar has no history in opposition,'€ he said.

Meanwhile, in Jokowi'€™s camp, National Awakening Party (PKB) chairman Muhaimin Iskandar looked confident after convincing the PDI-P that the PKB'€™s support for Jokowi'€™s candidacy would benefit his presidential campaign.

After announcing his party'€™s official support of Jokowi in a joint declaration event with the PDI-P and the NasDem Party on Wednesday, Muhaimin, the leader of the country'€™s now-largest Muslim-based party, quickly defended Jokowi from recent '€œblack campaigns'€ that had questioned the Jakarta governor'€™s ethnic and religious background.

'€œMany people have been attacking Pak Joko Widodo. But, I'€™m confident that the Nahdliyin [Nahdlatul Ulama members], and also all Muslims, have a clear conscience [when responding] to any kind of rumor or false accusation directed at him,'€ he said.

Established in 1998 in the wake of the reform era, the PKB has heavily relied on the support of the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), the country'€™s biggest Muslim organization, believed to have more than 30 million members.

Jokowi, whose presidential nomination had been announced by the PDI-P ahead of the April 9 legislative election, has been on the receiving end of various attacks
from political opponents and anonymous sources. Many of focus on his alleged role as '€œMegawati'€™s puppet'€.

Earlier this month, an online post citing Jokowi'€™s death also circulated across the social media.

The fake '€œobituary'€ falsified Jokowi'€™s name as Herbertus Joko Widodo and Oey Hong Liong, indicating that he was of Christian and Chinese descent. Christians and Chinese-Indonesians are among the minority in Indonesia, the world'€™s largest Muslim country.

After announcing his party'€™s alliance with Gerindra last week, United Development Party (PPP) chairman and Religious Affairs Minister Suryadharma Ali has also intensely promoted the presidential campaign of Gerindra chief patron Prabowo Subianto at public events, including one that he had been invited to in the capacity of minister.

Delivering the opening remarks in the Islamic Dakwah Indonesia institution (LDII) national meeting on Tuesday, Suryadharma spent the first few minutes going into detail about the recent PPP national leaders meeting, which ended with the Islamic party declaring its alliance with Gerindra for the upcoming presidential election.

The hundreds-strong audience apparently responded with rousing applause after Suryadharma mentioned Prabowo'€™s
name.

'€œThe applause was very loud. I believe we all agree [to side] with Prabowo,'€ Suryadharma said, which was followed by the audience'€™s laughter.

'€” Ina Parlina contributed to the story

 

 

The week of coalition maneuvering

 

Monday, May 12
After heated infighting, PPP officially endorses the presidential bid of Gerindra'€™s Prabowo Subianto.

 

Tuesday, May 13

- PDI-P'€™s Joko '€œJokowi'€ Widodo meets Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono at the presidential palace to request a leave of absence from his post as Jakarta governor.
- PAN'€™s Hatta Rajasa and Prabowo consequently meet with the President at the Palace.
- Golkar'€™s Aburizal Bakrie and Jokowi make a joint appearance at Gembrong Market, Central Jakarta.
- NasDem'€™s Surya Paloh meets with Golkar'€™s chief advisor Akbar Tandjung.

 

Wednesday, May 14

- PDI-P, PKB and NasDem jointly declare support of Jokowi'€™s presidential nomination at PDI-P headquarters.
- PAN officially endorses Prabowo, nominates Hatta as running mate
- Aburizal'€™s turn to meet Yudhoyono.The President asks the Golkar chairman to mull a coalition and nominate a thirdcandidate.
- Prabowo and Wiranto separately meet with Aburizal at the latter'€™s office. The two inform Aburizal about Gerindra and Hanura'€™s coalition plans that may exclude Golkar.

 

Thursday, May 15

Aburizal meets Megawati Soekarnoputri in a closed-door meeting at the latter'€™s residence in Central Jakarta. Megawati'€™s daughter Puan Maharani is also present in the meeting.

 

Friday, May 16

- SOE Minister Dahlan Iskan wins Democratic Party'€™s presidential convention. The party refuses to name him a presidential candidate.
- NasDem'€™s chief adviser Rachmawati Soekarnoputri meets with Prabowo at her residence.

 

Saturday, May 17

- Wiranto meets Megawati and declares political cooperation between his Hanura Party and PDI-P. Puan is also present in the meeting
- PKS officially endorses Prabowo

 

Sunday, May 18

- Golkar says Aburizal can be a VP candidate but does not make any decision on coalition partner yet
- Democratic Party holds a national meeting to decide on its coalition path which is still ongoing as of 7 p.m.

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