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wo pairs of presidential-vice presidential candidates registered with the General Elections Commission (KPU) last Tuesday. Both pairs submitted nationalist-religious manifestos. The Jakarta Post'€™s Hasyim Widhiarto and Bagus BT Saragih offer an analysis of each pair'€™s chances in the upcoming presidential election, plus a sidebar on the process of establishing the two eventual camps contesting the July 9 election.

Despite being a loyal supporter of the United Development Party (PPP) for years, Tasikmalaya-based politician Didin Afiadi admitted that he felt nervous about his party'€™s recent decision to support the presidential nomination of Gerindra Party chief patron Prabowo Subianto.

Leading the PPP chapter in the city'€™s Bungursari district, Didin, who recently lost his local councilor bid in the April 9 legislative election, said he was not sure the party'€™s endorsement of Prabowo would be well translated at the grassroots level due to the high popularity of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) presidential candidate Joko '€œJokowi'€ Widodo, Prabowo'€™s only contender, among locals.

'€œAs a party member, I will happily support the candidacy of Prabowo and Hatta [Rajasa, Prabowo'€™s running mate]. But looking at how the PPP recently lost its dominance in [Tasikmalaya] regency during the legislative election, I'€™m afraid the party will see bad results if it insists on supporting a less favorable candidate in the upcoming [presidential] election,'€ Didin told The Jakarta Post on Friday.

Located some 250-kilometers southeast of Jakarta, the West Java city of Tasikmalaya, administratively divided into a municipality and regency in 2001, is renowned as a long-time stronghold of the PPP, the country'€™s oldest Islamic party as well as other Muslim-based parties.

Tasikmalaya is also a home to more than 600 pesantren (Islamic boarding schools), one of the nation'€™s highest, with most affiliated with the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), the country'€™s largest Muslim organization known for its support of education, cultural engagement and socioeconomic development in rural areas.

In the 2009 legislative election, the PPP managed to secure 14 out of 50 seats in the Tasikmalaya Regional Legislative Council (DPRD). Although it still topped the recent election in the regency, the party could only secure nine DPRD seats, narrowing the gap with the PDI-P, which successfully garnered eight. The PPP, meanwhile, has maintained its ascendancy in Tasikmalaya municipality after it successfully secured 10 out of 45 DPRD seats, two more than the previous election.

Last week, the PPP, along with Gerindra, the Golkar Party, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the Crescent Star Party (PBB), together garnering 49 percent of 124.9 million valid votes in the recent legislative election, officially formed an alliance to endorse Prabowo'€™s presidential nomination.

Four parties '€” the PDI-P, the National Awakening Party (PKB), the NasDem Party and Hanura Party '€” meanwhile, collectively gathered nearly 40 percent of the votes and agreed to support Jokowi'€™s nomination.

Didin, however, considered such a margin insignificant.

'€œThe upcoming presidential election would be mainly about rivalry between the contending figures, so I would say Prabowo-Hatta'€™s chance [of winning the election] here is fifty-fifty,'€ he said.

After officially registering their candidacy with the KPU last week, Jokowi and Prabowo, both known as nationalist figures, have been intensifying contact with Muslim leaders, particularly those representing the NU and Muhammadiyah, the country'€™s second largest Islamic organization, to increase their chance of winning the top government job in the world'€™s largest Muslim country.

Although both organizations, believed to have more than 50 million members in total, have pledged that they would remain neutral in the upcoming presidential election, many of their leading figures have openly shared their support for certain candidates in the hope of influencing some of their loyal members.

Among the Muslim figures backing Prabowo are NU chairman Said Aqil Siradj; former Muhammadiyah chairman and PAN co-founder Amien Rais; and former Constitutional Court chief justice Mahfud MD, who was recently appointed as Prabowo'€™s campaign manager.

Jokowi and running mate Jusuf Kalla, meanwhile, have received endorsement from, among others, former NU chairman Hasyim Muzadi; former Muhammadiyah chairman Ahmad Syafi'€™i Maarif; and Nusron Wahid, who chairs the NU'€™s youth wing GP Anshor.

The presidential endorsements from Islamic-based parties and Muslim organization elites, however, have triggered mixed responses among members and grass-root supporters.

The PPP, for example, saw its recent national leaders meeting turn into a 27-hour deadlock after most PPP branch leaders allegedly preferred the endorsement of Jokowi rather than Prabowo. Party chairman Suryadharma Ali, however, denied there was an internal rift, saying that the PPP'€™s support of Prabowo was solid.

In Surabaya, a group claiming to represent thousands of East Java-based NU clerics announced on Thursday its support of Prabowo, challenging the PKB'€™s decision to nominate Jokowi.

Established in 1998 by a group of NU clerics, the PKB has heavily relied on support from traditional NU voters, especially those living in East Java. In the 2014 legislative election, more than a quarter of the party'€™s 11 million votes came from the province.

Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) political science researcher Firman Noor said disagreements among Muslim elites and the grassroots ahead of the presidential election had proven that Muslim voters were becoming more '€œpragmatic and rational'€ in terms of politics.

'€œMany Muslim voters are moving away from rigidly attaching themselves to certain [religious] institutions, including the NU and Muhammadiyah. They might still respect the clerics but won'€™t always follow their political preference,'€ said Firman, whose doctoral dissertation was on the internal dynamics within the Islamic-based PKS and the PKB in the post-reform era.

Semarang-based Wahid Hasyim University political science lecturer Agus Riyanto echoed Firman'€™s view, saying that candidate integrity would play a much larger role in luring Muslim voters.

'€œIn the 2013 Central Java gubernatorial election, the PKB officially support the candidacy of Hadi Prabowo. Many NU members, however, ended up supporting [PDI-P politician] Ganjar Pranowo, whom they considered having the best personal qualities,'€ he told the Post.

Agus, who is also an official with an NU think-tank, the Institute for Study and Human Resources (Lakpesdam), predicted that NU leaders and supporters would remain divided over the choice of presidential candidate.

'€œAt the organizational level, the NU will likely enjoy greater benefit if they support Jokowi since he is running with Kalla, who currently serves as an NU advisor. It also has a greater chance of having an NU figure in the Cabinet as there would be fewer competitors [in the coalition]. At the personal level, however, the preference of NU leading figures may vary due to reasons, such as political promises or financial incentives,'€ he said.

Muslim leaders joining either Jokowi or Prabowo'€™s camp have repeatedly claimed that their constituency would benefit the most from the victory of their preferred candidate.

'€œMost of the Nahdliyin [NU members] are from poorer economic and educational backgrounds. The PKB'€™s decision to support Pak Jokowi is driven by a willingness to help the next government improve the life [quality] of these marginal groups,'€ PKB chairman Muhaimin Iskandar said.

Mahfud, who was one of the PKB'€™s three presidential candidates, said his decision to support Prabowo had been partly motivated by a willingness to ensure that the position of Religious Affairs Minister would remain in the hands of an NU figure.

A survey conducted by the Jakarta-based Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) earlier this month found that 41 percent of its 2,400 respondents were still undecided about what candidate to vote for in the July 9 presidential election.

The LSI also found that half of Muslim respondents in the survey were among these undecided voters, the highest compared to the 32 percent of Christian respondents and 34 percent of Chatolics.

Member of Muhammadiyah'€™s Institute for Wisdom and Public Policy (LHKP) Nadjamuddin Ramly admitted that Muhammadiyah leaders and members were facing a dilemma in the upcoming presidential election.

'€œJusuf Kalla'€™s mother was the founder of Aisyiah [Muhammadiyah'€™s women organization] in South Sulawesi, while Hatta is close to Muhammadiyah leaders and figures even though he is not a Muhammadiyah core member,'€ he said.

'€œAt the same time, Pak Prabowo'€™s vision seems to have successfully attracted well-educated, middle-class Muhammadiyah members, while our grass-root supporters prefer Jokowi for his modesty and humble personality,'€ he said.

The so-called '€œnationalistic Muslim'€ groups could be arguably less influenced by the preferences made by the notable leaders in the groups, said political analyst Arya Fernandes.

Among the prominent Muslim nationalist figures who have chosen to take side are Paramadina University rector Anies Baswedan, who has been appointed as a spokesperson for the Jokowi-Kalla presidential campaign, and Yenny Wahid, the daughter of former president Abdurrahman Wahid, or Gus Dur, who endorsed Prabowo nomination.

According to Arya, nationalist-based Islamic communities were dominated by voters who are '€œrationalist and critical.'€ Therefore, he added, it was difficult to determine whether they would support Jokowi-Kalla or Prabowo-Hatta based on the support declared by their leaders.

'€œAlthough, to some extent, the choices of some nationalist leaders would also very likely influence the choices of their followers,'€ he said. '€œUsually, this only applies to the so-called die-hard followers.'€