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Your letters: The eight million vote margin
Regarding the 8 million vote margin between Joko âJokowiâ Widodo and Prabowo Subianto, it would be helpful to read a detailed analysis drawing on regional results, the April legislative election results and exit polls that noted respondentsâ age, gender, education level, party affiliation and so on
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egarding the 8 million vote margin between Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo and Prabowo Subianto, it would be helpful to read a detailed analysis drawing on regional results, the April legislative election results and exit polls that noted respondents' age, gender, education level, party affiliation and so on.
Here are three points worth considering. First, Jokowi's margin of victory in Sulawesi was nearly 2.5 million votes (62 percent to 37 percent for Prabowo), although Sulawesi in the legislative election was a stronghold for political parties in the Red and White Coalition, especially the Golkar Party. Almost certainly, Jokowi's big win was due to the Jusuf Kalla factor. So politicians with strong support bases in certain regions will remain in demand for future elections to produce a 'balanced' ticket.
Second, Jokowi won big in Papua and West Papua, by 1.5 million votes (72 percent to 29 percent). Almost certainly, therefore, Jokowi was more popular not only among native Papuans, but also among migrants from other areas of Indonesia. Probably, Prabowo was associated with a militaristic approach to Papuan affairs, which was viewed with antipathy by both native Papuans and migrants. Papuans will have high hopes that Jokowi's 'consult the people' approach will also apply to them.
Third, Java remained the decisive battleground in the election due to the huge number of voters. Prabowo's 4.6 million margin of victory in West Java was more than offset by Jokowi's 6.4 million advantage in Central Java.
Moreover, Jokowi won by 1.4 million votes in East Java (53 percent to 46 percent, almost identical to the national result).
The National Awakening Party (PKB), a major force in the province, decisively helped Jokowi's coalition. It remains unlikely that any candidate can win a presidential election in Indonesia with the support of just one or two parties, even if the 'independent candidates allowed' system projected for 2019 is implemented.
Also noticeable in East Java were major differences between districts. Prabowo won handsomely in Madura (e.g. 81 percent in Bangkalan) and in the north coast areas where Islamic influence has long been entrenched. Jokowi fared better in Surabaya and especially in southern areas like Blitar and Kediri, where Islam has had historically less influence.
John Hargreaves
Jakarta
