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Commentary: For Jokowi to survive Prabowo'€™s bullying, he must bully back

After five consecutive losses on the legislative front to the Red-and-White Coalition of defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto, concerns mount over the ability of president-elect Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s coalition to survive a string of imminent political harassments

Rendi A. Witular (The Jakarta Post)
Jakarta
Fri, October 10, 2014

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Commentary: For Jokowi to survive Prabowo'€™s bullying, he must bully back

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fter five consecutive losses on the legislative front to the Red-and-White Coalition of defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto, concerns mount over the ability of president-elect Joko '€œJokowi'€ Widodo'€™s coalition to survive a string of imminent political harassments.

Recent remarks by Prabowo'€™s brother, Hashim Djojohadikusumo, who threatened to disrupt Jokowi'€™s administration through the House of Representatives, have further fueled concern that Jokowi'€™s administration will find it difficult to pass its reform promises.

To some extent, such concerns may well be justified, for now. But given that Jokowi has yet to assume office, it may be a far-fetched assumption to worry that the former Jakarta governor will be in for a rough ride against the House.

The division between Jokowi'€™s and Prabowo'€™s camps in the House is of a small margin. Assuming that the United Development Party (PPP) has jumped ship to Jokowi'€™s camp, Prabowo'€™s coalition only controls around 56 percent of the House.

Given this fairly small disparity, it may be easier for Jokowi to sway support from the rival camp by any means, if necessary, including the use of his vast authority over state apparatus.

As president, Jokowi is the supreme commander of the Indonesian Military (TNI) and has the highest authority over the police force, the intelligence community and the Attorney General'€™s Office (AGO).

A recent discussion with a member of Jokowi'€™s camp has revealed that Jokowi and vice president-elect Jusuf Kalla are unlikely to have any reservations about utilizing those channels, particularly when most leaders of the opposing political parties have too many skeletons that they can no longer hide in their closets.

Golkar Party chief treasurer and newly elected House Speaker Setya Novanto, for example, has been implicated in a number of graft cases being handled by the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK), but his status in those cases remains as a witness, although court testimonies have confirmed his roles in those cases.

Similar to Setya, newly elected People'€™s Consultative Assembly (MPR) Speaker and senior National Mandate Party (PAN) politician Zulkifli Hasan was questioned by the KPK in June in his capacity as forestry minister for his alleged role in the bribery scandal surrounding the decision to turn protected forest in Bogor, West Java, into a commercial project.

It is also hard to comprehend President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono'€™s judgment in turning his Democratic Party away from Jokowi'€™s camp and provoking the fury of Jokowi'€™s patron, Megawati Soekarnoputri, amid allegations that his youngest son and legislator, Edhie '€œIbas'€ Baskoro, is involved in several bribery cases being investigated by the KPK.

While the KPK, which is independent from the President, already has its plate full with mounting cases it has to wrap up, the AGO or the National Police will probably be more than happy to take over the cases to entertain their new boss.

If graft cases take time to prove, Jokowi also has several other options to hit back at his rivals. Among the hard-hitting options is clipping their financial resources.

Through the Finance Ministry, Jokowi is authorized to order the powerful directorate general of taxation to probe the compliance of politicians with tax rules.

Several companies controlled by the family of Golkar chairman Aburizal Bakrie have had run-ins with the tax authorities in the past five years.

Disgraced tax official Gayus Tambunan, who is serving a 30-year prison sentence for a range of crimes from bribing law enforcement officers to falsifying a passport, said in 2010 that he had received bribes from Bakrie-controlled PT Bumi Resources and two of its subsidiaries, PT Kaltim Prima Coal and PT Arutmin, in order to avoid paying taxes.

While Bakrie has repeatedly denied the allegations, investigations into the cases by the tax office and the National Police are still ongoing.

Assuming that Jokowi has a sinister intent, he can easily order the tax office to also check the books of companies owned by Prabowo and Hashim, who repeatedly claimed they have complied with the tax rules.

Or Jokowi can even have the tax office verify the amount of income tax paid by the two brothers.

Should that fail to work, Jokowi can order the environment ministry to check whether Prabowo'€™s pulp and paper company, PT Kertas Nusantara, has abided by the rules to avoid milling illegally felled timber in its facilities.

Provided with so many channels and with so much ammunition for Jokowi to use, it may be difficult for the opposing politicians to wage a longstanding battle against the former furniture businessman. That is unless Jokowi commits an extraordinary crime, such as graft or adultery.

In addition to threatening legal action to leverage additional political support, the Jokowi camp is also bracing for potential leadership shake-ups in the rival camp, particularly within Golkar and PAN. The two parties are scheduled to hold their national meetings in January or February.

The Jokowi camp is hoping that the new leadership will encourage the parties to join the coalition.

As Jokowi is endowed with many forms of authority to enable him to fight the opposing camp, a series of political dramas is likely to unfold.

And many believe he will use this power to survive, politically. As in soccer, offense is always the best form of defense.

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