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Jakarta Post

Lima climate meet and where Indonesia stands

Scientists call for zero emissions

Warief Djajanto Basorie (The Jakarta Post)
Jakarta
Thu, November 27, 2014

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Lima climate meet and where Indonesia stands

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cientists call for zero emissions. Al Gore said in a 2013 book, The Future: Six Drivers of Global Change, a 90 percent carbon emissions cut was required to curb global warming. In 2009, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, as president, pledged Indonesia would reduce emissions by 41 percent by 2020.

The challenge is to change that call by the scientists to can-do commitment and measurable action. The United Nations (UN) annual climate conference, this year being held in Lima from Dec. 1 to 12, has a tall order to deliver in 2015 '€” a global, legally binding accord to cut carbon emissions.

That call got a surprise spark from China and the US on Nov. 12. The world'€™s two largest economies and top two carbon emitters announced an ambitious mutual approach to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

The US plans to reduce emissions by 26 to 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025. China intends to increase its reliance on zero-emission sources (renewable and nuclear energy) to 20 percent for its energy needs by 2030.

The latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) gave a dire, unequivocal prognosis. It seeks the required momentum to totally stop carbon emissions from coal-powered plants and other entrenched fossil fuel-based activities.

'€œSevere, widespread and irreversible impacts'€ are the infliction on Mother Earth if greenhouse gas emissions do not fall to zero, the IPCC assessed in its 40-page synthesis report for policymakers, the work of over 800 scientists worldwide. The report summarizes three reports on the science, the impacts and the solutions separately published from September 2013.

The summary report was released Nov. 2, timed one month ahead of the climate meet in the Peruvian capital to serve as a science-based guideline. The irreversible impacts range from severe rainstorms and heat waves, to food shortages and conflicts.

However, the report contains some good news. The means to curb global warming are available and affordable. It was economically affordable for carbon emissions to ultimately have to fall to zero and that global poverty could only be reduced by halting global warming, the IPCC stated.

A desired scenario is to have emissions peak by 2020 and then drop to zero over time. To do this, the report said several hundred billion dollars a year before 2030 must be invested in low-carbon electricity and energy efficiency. Other required action is carbon capture and storage (CCS), the means to place carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions underground.

CO2 in the atmosphere traps the heat from the sun. This warms the climate system. CCS technology is still developing. Without CCS, however, the IPPC estimates the cost of the big emissions cuts needed would more than double.

The Lima meeting that opens Dec. 1 draws up the draft for the yet-to-be named protocol the 2015 UN climate conference in Paris is to produce.

The deal legally binds all nations to reduce carbon emissions. This in turn checks average global warming to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Average temperatures have risen by 0.80 C since the 19th century.

When climate negotiators met in Bonn in October, they failed to agree on several fundamentals to make the forthcoming Paris pact work. The legal framework of the pact has not been determined. Rich nations have not detailed the funding and technology they will provide.

Another matter is what information nations should submit when they make their pledge to curb emissions. Such information includes what gas emissions a nation promises to cut, at what level, and in what time frame.

For Indonesia, its pledge is to cut emissions by up to 41 percent by 2020 as against business-as-usual levels. Much of that reduction should come from saving the country'€™s forests and peatland. Their loss contributes three-fourths of Indonesia'€™s carbon emissions.

Among developing countries, China, India, Brazil and Indonesia are major emitters. Apparently the rich nations will want developing nations to do more before the former make tangible commitments to put on the table the billions of dollars required annually.

For their part, on Oct. 23, European Union leaders agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by '€œat least'€ 40 percent and increase energy efficiency and renewables by 27 percent by 2030. The EU signaled other nations to pitch comparable commitments.

Since Yudhoyono'€™s stated commitment to reduce emissions by up to 41 percent in 2020, Indonesia has acted voluntarily. Apparently, Indonesia, under new President Joko '€œJokowi'€ Widodo, will have to do more given the size of its emissions and world expectations.

One policy move that can have immediate effect is to extend and expand the present moratorium on new permits to convert primary forest and peat swamp for oil palm and acacia plantations. Another is to rehabilitate damaged forest and peat cover to increase carbon stocks.

The moratorium expires in 2015 and can be extended indefinitely. It can be expanded to include permits already issued. Permit holders could be prohibited from carrying out their land-use conversion unless they have a low carbon, eco-friendly, sustainable oil palm development plan. Several major oil palm firms already declared they have such an agenda.

On Sept. 26 at the UN Climate Summit in New York, four major operators signed the game-changing Indonesia Palm Oil Pledge with the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Kadin. The intent is zero deforestation palm oil. The pledge takers are Golden-Agri Resources, Wilmar, Cargill and Asian Agri.

Such enhanced action can substantially upscale Indonesia'€™s emission reduction target to beyond 41 percent and deliver the pledge before 2020.

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The writer teaches journalism at the Dr. Soetomo Press Institute, Jakarta.

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