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News Analysis: Jokowi, Obama put smile on second-rate relationship
American leaders are as much celebrities to Indonesians as they are politicians
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merican leaders are as much celebrities to Indonesians as they are politicians. That's why it is a big deal to rub shoulders with the star-power of US President Barack Obama, Secretary of State John Kerry and even, as we have witnessed in a more recent debacle, Republican hopeful Donald Trump.
Today, President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo arrives at the White House to engage in talks with Obama.
Nice words will be said, broad pledges made, and tomorrow's headlines will dominate.
But those smiles cannot conceal that US-Indonesian relations, while better than under the Bush administration, remain second-rate and disappointingly lukewarm given the level of promise and expectation Indonesia had of a president who spent time as a child in this country.
Obama's memories of eating bakso (meatballs) in Menteng, Central Jakarta, do not disguise the fact that, by and large, Indonesia remains off Washington's geostrategic map. Indonesia's moniker 'the world's third-largest democracy' has not attracted the kind of attention it deserves from a superpower that contends to place democracy and human rights so high on its foreign policy agenda.
The Comprehensive Partnership signed five years ago and more recently the US strategic rebalancing toward Asia have proven to be false narratives in elevating ties.
The US remains one of Indonesia's top trading partners, but according to data from the Ministry of Trade, bilateral trade in 2014 stood at US$24.7 billion, compared to $23.6 billion in 2010.
Foreign Minister Retno LP Marsudi said in Washington last month: 'This is the best time for Indonesia and the US to sit together and discuss the future relations between the two countries'.
But, arguably, it may not be.
It has been two terms of missed opportunities in Washington, and Jokowi's visit comes at an inopportune time as he is facing a US administration in its final year in office.
Indonesia's strategic vision of hedging and balancing major regional powers probably runs counter to the kind of role the US would like to see Indonesia play in view of Washington's anxiety toward China.
Hence, apart from strengthening normative components of the comprehensive partnership, what advantage can President Jokowi expect to gain from the United States?
While US acceptance of UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea) is improbable, Jokowi should still use the visit as a platform to highlight it as a basis of maritime order in Asia, and the world.
Maritime security and defense are two areas of advanced cooperation that should be observed closely and where memorandums are expected to be signed.
Indonesia recently established the Maritime Security Agency (Bakamla). The development of a coast guard is an area where the US has unrivaled expertise and where Indonesia is in dire need of assistance. Last month, a delegation from Indonesia already visited the US Coast Guard Academy as an inkling of further cooperation to come.
The security challenges of Southeast and East Asia will be in the seas, specifically with regards to ease of navigation and overlapping claims in the South China Sea, which remains a regional flashpoint.
The coast guard fits perfectly into this need for security and serves as an additional instrument for Jokowi's vision of Indonesia as a maritime axis. It will be closely watched how much assistance the US will lend, including the potential sale of refurbished coast guard ships.
Observers will also be noting if a breakthrough memorandum or joint statement on defense will be issued.
The biggest outcome here would be US training for the Indonesian Army's Special Forces (Kopassus), along with Indonesia's desire for co-production of defense technology.
The US still maintains strict terms for such technology transfer; meanwhile Indonesia recently made it a point of prioritizing technology transfer in defense procurements.
President Jokowi's aides have made a big show about focusing on 'deliverables' during this visit. Before and after his meeting with Obama, Jokowi is slated to have multiple meetings with businesses both on the East and West coast.
Yet, these meetings alone are not going to forge a sound basis for greater bilateral trade and investment if the technical underpinning is not conducive.
Therefore, it would be helpful if the two countries could begin talks on a bilateral investment treaty and find ways, for example, to expand the resource base of Export-Import Bank of the United States ' the official export credit agency of the US ' to collaborate in infrastructure development here.
It is also crucial that Jokowi during the visit does not get pushed into making impulsive remarks with regards to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which is high on the US agenda.
Other results we can expect from the US visit will be the announcement of a new mechanism for ministerial-level strategic dialog and a 'Track II' approach to broaden input from businesses, academia and civil society.
