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Commentary: What if the military annuls Myanmar's election results again?
âOnly when peace prevails will democratization be implemented,â incumbent Myanmar President Gen
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'Only when peace prevails will democratization be implemented,' incumbent Myanmar President Gen. (ret) Thein Sein warned the nation on his Facebook page, amid the nation's final preparation for Sunday's general
elections.
The reformist general's warning should be taken seriously. In 1990, Myanmar's junta confidently held an internationally acknowledged general election, mainly because the generals thought ' wrongly ' that the National League for Democracy (NLD) party would not be able to achieve significant success. The generals boasted they would relinquish power to the winner. The junta had jailed the party's leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, one year earlier, hence their conviction.
The brutal generals were totally wrong, as the NLD won 80 percent of seats in the parliament. The election was internationally recognized as democratic and fair. But the military annulled the results and locked Suu Kyi up. The junta closed the country to the world and oppressed any protests or antigovernment movements.
The 70-year old Thein Sein has surprised the world with sweeping reforms in nearly all aspects of life in Myanmar, especially in the economy and politics since seizing power in 2011. The international community, including Indonesia and major powers, praised his leadership in opening the impoverished nation to the outside world. The economy grew steadily, raising questions on whether an opposition was still relevant in the upcoming elections. Thousands of political prisoners were released, and the media enjoyed relatively wide-ranging freedom.
It is natural for the president to hope that his Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) will defeat the leading opposition party NLD on Sunday.
However, despite the country's impressive progress, the NLD is widely expected to win a landslide victory, because people are still traumatized from decades of military oppression.
The party of opposition leader Suu Kyi, however, has to prepare another party executive to become the country's president, as the military's engineered constitution prohibits her from being the head of state and government.
Myanmar's military dictators ruled the country from 1962 until 2011 and practically closed the country off to the outside world. The generals regarded Suu Kyi, the daughter of Myanmar's founding father, Gen. Aung San, as their No. 1 political enemy. They put her under house arrest and isolated her from her party followers and the people.
Their latest brutal act against the winner of the 1991 Nobel Peace Prize is a constitutional rule that bars Suu Kyi from becoming the president, because her husband and children are foreigners. Her late husband, Michael Aris, was a British citizen and their two children, Alexander and Kim, are foreign passport bearers.
'I will be above the president,' Suu Kyi replied on Thursday, when journalists asked the 70-year old woman on the constitutional barrier.
Many Indonesians liken Suu Kyi to Indonesia's fifth president, Megawati Soekarnoputri, the daughter of Indonesia's founding father and first president, Sukarno.
Megawati became the symbol of people's resistance against Soeharto, who along with the military ruled Indonesia for about 32 years until his fall in May 1998. One year later, Megawati's party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), won the country's first democratic elections since 1955. She failed to get the presidential post, which was won by her long-time friend Abdurrahman 'Gus Dur' Wahid, and only became his deputy. She became president in 2001 after Gus Dur was impeached by the People's Consultative Assembly(MPR).
Suu Kyi is less lucky than Megawati, whose party won the 1999 elections, riding on widespread anger and frustration as Indonesia was on the brink of economic collapse. Megawati faced no constitutional restrictions at all.
Indonesia also has many similarities with Myanmar, including its wide ethnic diversity and problems with minorities and rebellions. Under Soeharto, the then Indonesian Armed Forces (ABRI) had a dual function: defense and security and political functions. Myanmar even learned from Soeharto how to ensure military domination in government. The military is also very sensitive on issues of national unity. It was Soeharto who led ASEAN in accepting Myanmar to join the regional grouping in 1997.
Myanmarese generals apparently also learned from Indonesia's experience during the transition from dictatorship to full-fledged democracy. Former president Gen. (ret) Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono played an important role in persuading the generals to follow Indonesia's path.
Learning from the military's irresponsible act in 1990, it is not impossible that the incumbent president and the military will grab all necessary and possible means to prevent the opposition from taking over power should Suu Kyi's party secure a sweeping victory on Nov. 8. Vote rigging, manipulation and the use of violence to terrorize voters are also quite probable.
As the leader of ASEAN, Indonesia should not let Myanmar's military repeat what it did 15 years ago. For President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo this is a major opportunity to demonstrate his regional leadership. We can no longer use the 'domestic affairs' pretext against taking a strong stance against any attempt by the military to reject the results of Sunday's election.
As long as the election is recognized as free, democratic, fair and just, the decision of the Myanmarese people as the supreme holder of power should be respected and implemented.
Indonesia needs to be on the frontline in leading ASEAN to ensure a smooth and peaceful transfer of power in Myanmar.
