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Declining birth rate threatens future population bonuses

When Maria Ananta, 41, a lecturer at a private university in Yogyakarta, and her spouse married 16 years ago, they decided to use contraception to postpone having children because both felt too young and not ready to make a full commitment to offspring

The Jakarta Post
Jakarta
Mon, July 17, 2017

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Declining birth rate threatens future population bonuses

W

hen Maria Ananta, 41, a lecturer at a private university in Yogyakarta, and her spouse married 16 years ago, they decided to use contraception to postpone having children because both felt too young and not ready to make a full commitment to offspring.

She still does not regret not having children.

“My family is still alright without children. I think the idea of children is just not suitable for me,” Maria told The Jakarta Post, explaining she was not ready to cut her “me time” for children.

Irene Anindyaputri, 23, a content writer living in Jakarta, has a similar point of view. Although she is not married yet, she has decided not to have children, arguing that being a mother is not her calling.

“For me having children is a choice; it’s not fate, nor an obligation, and I think being a mother is just not my passion,” she told the Post.

Maria and Irene are among other women in urban areas who perceive having children as a matter of choice, and who have decided not to have any.

National Population and Family Planning Board (BKKBN) deputy for population control Wendy Hartanto said the trend in Indonesia, which was similar to that of western countries, was for couples in urban centers to lack interest in having children.

“Couples living in urban areas tend to be very busy, which means they do not think about children after marriage,” he told the Post on Wednesday.

According to the Central Statistics Agency’s (BPS) Inter Census Population Survey (SUPAS) conducted in 2015, the fertility rate of Indonesia dropped to 2.28 children per woman in 2015 from 5.20 children per woman in 1976.

In urban areas like Jakarta and Yogyakarta, the fertility rate has dropped to below 2 children per woman. In Jakarta, the fertility rate stands at 1.89 children per woman, while in Yogyakarta it is 1.74 children per woman.

The slowdown in the fertility rate, possibly caused by a trend of young people not wanting children, causes worries about an aging population, particularly after the demographic dividend period.

Indonesia is predicted to experience a demographic dividend due to the expected large proportion of the working-age population (15 to 64) compared to the dependant population during the period of 2020 to 2030.

The increased productive-age population during that period is expected to boost Indonesia’s per-capita income and household savings. This can support investment the country needs to create more job opportunities.

However, Indonesia will benefit from the demographic bonus only if people of the productive age have a high level of work productivity, which can only be achieved through adequate educational and vocational training and good health, experts say.

According to the statistics agency’s Indonesia Population Projection 2010-2035, the population of Indonesia will reach 305.6 million people in 2035, with about 67.9 percent in the working-age segment.

Wendy said that, should the overall fertility rate decrease to below 2 children per woman, the country would face a crisis of an aging population — a condition in which the population of elderly people is larger than the population of productive-age people. However, this will not occur any time soon.

“The TFR [total fertility rate] is projected to decline to below 2 possibly in around 2060 to 2070, and we will need to increase population growth to counter that,” he said.

Wendy said his agency planned to decrease the current fertility rate to 2.1 children per woman as of 2025 and hold it there afterward to prevent a sudden aging of the population.

Wendy also said that, should this begin to happen, the agency would design a program to encourage young couples in urban areas to have children.

“We will persuade the working couples in urban areas to have children, but I think it will not be soon,” he said.

Maria and Irene, meanwhile, see no need for concern. They say an aging population is inevitable and note that Indonesia is large and many people still have a desire for children.

“Only very few people I know are considering not having children,” Irene said. (ecn)

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