While polls have indicated that the Indonesian presidential race will most likely be a two-round affair because three pairs are contesting, the leading ticket in electability ratings maintains that winning the election outright in February is still possible.

Presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto and his running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka have enjoyed consistently high electability ratings over the last few months. In the past month, the pair’s rating has continued to inch closer toward 50 percent, giving their camp the confidence that the election would be a cinch for the front-running pair.

A survey conducted by Indikator Politik Indonesia released on Dec. 26 showed that Prabowo-Gibran reached a rating of 46.7 percent. Ganjar Pranowo and running mate Mahfud MD trailed in distant second with 24.5 percent while Anies Baswedan and his VP candidate Muhaimin Iskandar followed not too far behind with 21 percent. Moreover, 7.8 percent of respondents were still undecided.

A survey by Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) conducted on Dec. 17-23 found slightly different results. While Prabowo-Gibran remained in the lead with an electability of 43.3 percent, it was the Anies-Muhaimin pair that came second with 25.3 percent, followed by Ganjar-Mahfud with 22.9 percent. Similarly, 7.9 percent of the respondents had yet to decide who they would vote for.

Similar results were also reported in a poll by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) conducted on Dec. 13-18, where Prabowo-Gibran placed first with a rating of 43.7 percent, followed by Anies-Muhaimin at 26.1 percent and Ganjar-Mahfud at 19.4 percent. For this survey, 6.4 percent of respondents kept their choice of ticket confidential and 4.5 percent of respondents were undecided.

Based on electability ratings alone, it is looking quite optimistic for the Prabowo-Gibran pair. However, Gadjah Mada University (UGM) School of Social and Political Sciences lecturer Nyarwi Ahmad assessed that although Prabowo-Gibran have consistently taken the lead in most polls, their ratings have stagnated at 40-46 percent. Ideally, according to Nyarwi, their rating should have reached at least 56 percent by now and this in itself indicates that the election would go into a run-off.

What’s more

While Prabowo-Gibran have been championing a single-round election as part of their campaign, their competitors are acknowledging the likelihood of there being a second round of voting, which would likely see Prabowo-Gibran face off against either Ganjar-Mahfud or Anies-Muhaimin.

In this scenario, LSI executive director Djayadi Hanan suggested that Ganjar and Anies’ camps could enter into an alliance against Prabowo. According to temporary data, Anies’ voters would end up voting for Prabowo if the former Jakarta governor lost the first round. The same would also apply to Ganjar’s voters if he does not proceed to the second round of voting. Thus, in order to keep their respective voters from swerving to Prabowo, an alliance between the two rivals may be in order.

Aria Bima, a politician from the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) backing Ganjar-Mahfud, acknowledged that their camp was maintaining communications with Anies’ team. However, he clarified that no such agreement had been reached between the two sides.

On a separate note, Anies and Muhaimin’s steadily rising electability rating has not gone unnoticed. The pair scored a rating of 25.3 percent in the LSI survey, marking a 2-point increase from the 23.8 percent rating they reached in early December, prior to the presidential and vice-presidential debates.

LSI researcher Adjie Alfaraby said several reasons could explain the pair’s rising electability. For one, Anies-Muhaimin have been consistent in maintaining their opposition stance against the current government. Moreover, those unsatisfied with the President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo administration are beginning to throw their support behind Anies. In fact, at least 40 percent of voters who are unsatisfied with the current government will be voting for Anies. As of November 2023, this figure even reached 56.8 percent, Adjie added.

What we’ve heard

According to an executive in the Anies-Muhaimin campaign team, their electability rate has increased due to Anies’ loyal voters. “We have bases in Jakarta, Banten, West Java and West Sumatra,” the source said.

This phenomenon was reflected in the CSIS latest survey. Anies-Muhaimin scored a higher electability rating compared to their competitors in two regions, namely Sumatra and Jakarta-Banten. The pair have a rating of 34.4 percent in Sumatra and 35.2 percent in Jakarta-Banten, though they are still evenly matched with Prabowo-Gibran. The source said that Anies-Muhaimmin voters are mainly middle class and from educated groups in urban areas.

Anies is also targeting voters in Central Java and East Java. Central Java, known as the PDI-P stronghold, will likely be contested by Ganjar and Prabowo. Anies is also targeting non-urban areas in East Java. The source added that Anies will be holding his forum “Desak Anies” in fishing villages in Banyuwangi.

“Central Java and East Java have not given a significant boost to Anies-Muhaimin’s electability rating,” the source said.

Meanwhile, an official with Ganjar-Mahfud's campaign team admitted the ticket had lost 5-10 percent of PDI-P voters in Central Java. Hence, Ganjar will be traveling around the province to win back the popular support. The source added that the pair has to restore the votes lost in Central Java to qualify for the run-off.

Disclaimer

This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia’s political and business landscape. Access the latest edition of Tenggara Backgrounder to read the articles listed below:

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