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Will Myanmar's military junta collapse?
Officially recognizing the NUG would finally chop the five-point consensus negotiated by ASEAN in April 2021 and get rid of the notion that ASEAN must lead when it proved to be incapable of doing it.
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Three years on: Vehicles drive on Feb. 1, 2024, near a pagoda in Yangon, Myanmar, before a “silent strike“ was due to start later that day to mark the third year of the military coup against the democratically elected government. (AFP/Stringer)
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s the setbacks for the generals in Naypyidaw mount, it might be tempting for observers of Myanmar affairs to wonder if the Tatmadaw, the national army, will really be able to withstand the “resistance” that is getting stronger and stronger.
While some cracks in the high ranks of the military officials in power might unfold and perhaps they are already emerging, even if they are not visible yet, there is a problem with the maximalist view that the generals will be defeated militarily.
First, because it implies that more violence will be shed in what is already an extremely bloody civil conflict.
Second, even if a new general replaces Gen. Min Aung Hlaing at the helm of the illegal government pretending now to run the country, it is hard to imagine that this person will surrender and capitulate.
What is instead desirable is real support for the National Unity Government (NUG), at least diplomatically.
This means that it must be fully recognized not only as a legitimate stakeholder in any future negotiations but it must also be officially declared as the only official representative of Myanmar.
It is still inexplicable to me how the West has not made yet such a move.
