As Megawati Soekarnoputri and Surya Paloh exchanged cordial gestures at the NasDem Party congress on Monday, the reportedly strained relationship between the two seasoned politicians seemed on the mend. Analysts, however, have said tensions persist about future competition between the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and NasDem.

Megawati’s now infamous snub of Surya as they attended a swearing-in ceremony at the House of Representatives last month has sparked speculation about cracks in President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s coalition. The heterogeneous group of parties is led by Megawati’s PDI-P.

But on Monday, Surya welcomed Megawati to the party congress venue in Kemayoran, Central Jakarta, with her daughter and House Speaker Puan Maharani. Smiles abounded.

During his speech, Surya brushed off rumors of a spat, saying there was no dispute between him and Megawati. He called the former president his best friend.

The media mogul said there was no reason to question NasDem’s loyalty to Jokowi and the progovernment coalition.

“We love Jokowi. We love Ma’ruf Amin, we love Jusuf Kalla, and don’t ever doubt how much I still love Mbak Mega,” Surya said, referring to the current and former vice presidents during the closing event of the party’s eighth anniversary celebration.

Megawati, who sat next to Ma'ruf, smiled in the audience.

Surya said he wondered what had happened when Megawati refused to shake his hand in October. He created an investigation team to determine whether it was intentional.

“The results showed it was not intentional,” Surya said. The remark drew applause and laughter from the audience.

Despite the ostensible thaw in the two leaders’ relations, political observers said things were not always what they seemed. They predicted the moment could be the beginning of a contest between NasDem and PDI-P.

Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) political researcher Arya Fernandes said the apparent closeness between NasDem and PDI-P did not mean anything. Both parties would continue to jostle with each other in the future, as NasDem was no longer a small party. Based on the 2019 elections, NasDem is currently Indonesia’s fourth-largest party. The possibility has emerged for the party to endorse its own figures in the 2024 elections alongside other parties.

"NasDem realizes that the 2024 race will be an open battle. It is also aware that the PDI-P is having difficulty deciding whether to open the opportunity to other coalition members or to form a coalition with Prabowo Subianto of the Gerindra Party and make Puan a candidate. NasDem is freer, and it’s positive for them,” he said.

Speculation abounds that the PDI-P will form a coalition with Gerindra in the 2024 presidential race, following Gerinda’s move to join the progovernment coalition. The political switch surprised many as Gerindra’s Prabowo challenged Jokowi twice for the presidency and has been a staunch critic of the government.

Prabowo is now defense minister in the new Cabinet.

NasDem is aiming high. It held its national congress earlier than others, and Surya said the party would prepare a grand strategy for 2024. NasDem wanted to take over the PDI-P’s role as the nation’s largest party, he said.

During his speech on Monday, Surya also said that he would hold a presidential-candidate convention in 2022, two years ahead of the presidential election, to provide a wide opportunity for potential contenders.

Indonesia Political Review executive director Ujang Komarudin said fierce competition lay ahead among NasDem, the PDI-P and Gerindra. He called the friendly gesture on Monday a “political gimmick” that would not ease the tensions.

NasDem’s planned presidential convention will also be a moment for the party to improve its bargaining position.

"What is clear is that, in the near future, the NasDem Party, the PDI-P and the Gerindra Party will continue competing against each other and bring one another down," he said.

Surya’s brash ambition has surprised PDI-P officials.

PDI-P executive Djarot Saiful Hidayat questioned NasDem’s early maneuver. "The new Cabinet has just begun working. How come they have a desire for 2024?” he asked.

House Speaker Puan said the PDI-P was in no hurry to find possible candidates for the 2024 race. It would focus on supporting Jokowi’s second-term administration.

Surya invited Jokowi to the stage later in the evening to deliver the closing speech. He joked that he wanted to hug the former mayor of Surakarta.

Jokowi expressed his gratitude for NasDem’s support since the 2014 presidential election and congratulated the party for its achievement in the 2019 general elections.

The President said during the speech that a comment he made about Surya's political maneuvering — which included a meeting between Surya and PKS chairman Sohibul Iman last month — was driven by "jealousy”.

Jokowi poked fun at Surya last week during a Golkar event, saying Surya looked brighter after the meeting with Sohibul. He noted the embrace between the two chairmen. “I was only jealous. He never held me that tight," he said.

The President added that there was nothing wrong with two political parties of different perspectives being friendly with one another.

“What matters is the intention to maintain the nation’s unity and harmony. It’s false if someone says our coalition is not solid. We get along very well,” said the President, who hugged Surya after the speech.

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