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It's Prabowo vs. Anies in 2024, survey says
A political survey has suggested that Gerindra Party leader Prabowo Subianto would square off against Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan in 2024, with the former allies likely representing two competing political alliances, one led by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the other by the NasDem Party
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span>A political survey has suggested that Gerindra Party leader Prabowo Subianto would square off against Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan in 2024, with the former allies likely representing two competing political alliances, one led by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the other by the NasDem Party.
The survey, conducted by pollster Indo Barometer, shows that voters still expect the former general to run in the 2024 presidential election, even though he has lost every single presidential election since 2009.
With President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo out of the equation after completing his second term, Prabowo now comes on top in the polls, with Anies, his former ally, being his strongest competitor.
Prabowo, now the defense minister in Jokowi's Cabinet, gained 22.5 percent of the vote from 1,200 respondents, while Anies secured 14.3 percent, according to the survey released on Sunday.
The pollster said the results indicated that Prabowo could be competing against yet another Jakarta governor that he had once endorsed.
Prabowo was one of the political figures who backed Jokowi's gubernatorial bid in Jakarta a few years before the latter decided to take on his former patron in the 2014 presidential election.
While Gerindra has yet to officially announce a plan to nominate its chairman again, Indo Barometer executive director Muhammad Qodari said he was convinced Prabowo had not given up his political ambitions.
“For me, Prabowo is the most definite candidate for the 2024 presidential election,” said Qodari.
He pointed out that Prabowo had secured a political stage for the next four years by accepting Jokowi's appointment as defense minister. A previous Indo Barometer survey on ministers found Prabowo to be a favorite among respondents, who also believed he has been performing the best out of his Cabinet peers.
Anies, on the other hand, is now seen as the strongest potential presidential candidate among regional heads. He is well known by the public because the Jakarta governor usually receives national attention and more exposure by the media, Qodari said.
The survey also suggested that a face-off between Anies and Prabowo could also be the result of growing competition between the PDI-P and NasDem.
Shortly after the presidential election last year, NasDem leader Surya Paloh held a meeting with his counterparts of the ruling coalition without PDI-P leader Megawati Soekarnoputri at the party's headquarters in Gondangdia, Central Jakarta. Analyst viewed the meeting as the first sign of a growing rift between Paloh and Megawati, who had mended ties with Prabowo and hinted at a possible alliance between the two in 2024.
Qodari said Anies would most likely be backed by the NasDem party as Surya had repeatedly hinted at the possibility of his party nominating the Jakarta governor, a cofounder of the NasDem mass organization. Islamic parties such as the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), Qodari added, would also rally behind Anies.
Without Jokowi, the PDI-P, the only party able to nominate its own candidate, will likely pair Prabowo with its own members, including House of Representatives speaker and Megawati's daughter, Puan Maharani.
Qodari said that technically, the PDI-P could nominate Puan without having to form an alliance with other parties, but such a move was not politically viable. According to the Indo Barometer survey, Puan secured only 1 percent of the vote.
In a scenario in which the PDI-P-led coalition competed against the NasDem coalition, Prabowo would be the strongest when paired with Puan, while Anies had a better chance of winning the election if paired with West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil or Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, the son of former president and Democratic Party leader Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.
According to the poll, the Prabowo-Puan pair would beat Anies in every scenario where the Jakarta governor was paired with other potential candidates, such as Agus, Golkar Party chairman and Coordinating Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto, National Awakening Party (PKB) chairman and People’s Consultative Assembly Deputy Speaker Muhaimin Iskandar and Ridwan Kamil.
When asked about the PDI-P versus NasDem scenario, in which the former is expected to nominate Prabowo, PDI-P politician Utut Adianto merely laughed, saying "that's just a simulation".
He underlined, however, that Jokowi — who remains the most popular presidential candidate — would not run again in 2024.
“It’s very clear [in the Constitution] that the presidency is limited to two terms,” he said, dismissing rumors that the Constitution might see a revision that would allow Jokowi to run again. (mfp)
