Katadata Insight Center research director Mulya Amri said that historically, promotional events such as last year’s Single’s Day in November as well as Harbolnas (National Online Shopping Day) in December 2019, increased online sales by 3.7 times and 5.3 times, respectively.

The figures are based on a joint study between media and research firm Katadata and credit lending app Kredivo that looked at 10 million e-commerce transaction by the app’s users last year.

“The trend will continue this year, but we expect sales volume to go down due to people’s declining purchasing power,” he said during a webinar on Tuesday, adding that holidays including Christmas and Valentine’s Day also saw slight increases in online sales.

“That is why e-commerce platforms should still utilize these days for promotional events,” he said.

Mulya went on to say that while many people have seen a loss of income due to pay cuts, furloughs and lay-offs during the pandemic, some people have disposable income, as remote working enables them to save on transportation and apparel spending.

Household spending, which accounts for more than half of gross domestic product (GDP), fell 5.51 percent year-on-year (yoy) in the second quarter, as the economy contracted 5.32 percent for the first time since 1999.

A recent survey conducted by the Demographic Institute of the University of Indonesia (UI) in collaboration with ride-hailing firm Gojek showed that 85 percent of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) surveyed had seen a decrease in sales between March and June.

However, according to a survey by management consulting company Redseer in May, Indonesia’s e-commerce sector is projected to grow 50 percent yoy to reach $35 billion this year from $23 billion in 2019, as the pandemic creates a new normal in shopping habits.

The survey also found that around 30 percent of the survey respondents said they were new to online marketplaces, 40 percent of whom said they would continue to use e-commerce after the pandemic was over.

Kredivo general manager Lily Suriani also said that discounts were valued by consumers as many waited for prices to drop before buying certain items.

She went on to say that consumers were now increasing their basket sizes on e-commerce platforms, especially millennial and Gen Z buyers, who account for 85 percent of online transactions.

However, Lily also said older generations also showed confidence in e-commerce, as people on average made purchases on online shops 17 to 20 times annually regardless of age group.

“People are now more confident in using e-commerce even to buy gadgets and automobiles. I think this trend will continue,” she told the press.

However, Indonesia E-Commerce Association (idEA) chairman Ignatius Untung said that e-commerce platforms should not go overboard in giving out discounts, as it was not a sustainable business strategy.

“The pandemic has pushed people to stay indoors and turn to e-commerce for shopping. So even without discounts, e-commerce has gained good traction,” he said.

Kredivo Marketing and Alliances head Indina Andamari Said that around 70 percent of the platform’s loans went to e-commerce payments and to cater to the growing number of online shoppers.

The company is aiming for 80 percent of its loans to be disbursed for online shop payments this year.

“We also plan to create a new loan product for small and medium enterprises [SMEs], but we are still formulating it,” she said.

The company has reported it has almost 2 million active users, an increase of 42 percent since January.

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