Like it or not, Megawati will continue to play a decisive role in defining the country’s political direction as long as she remains healthy.

But no one can defy nature. Born on Jan. 23, 1947, she is now racing against time to make up her mind as to who will succeed her as the leader of the secular, nationalist-oriented party. A failure to do this in a correct and timely manner will put the party in jeopardy and, as a consequence, Sukarno’s political dynasty will be in great danger.

The PDI-P has always been associated with Sukarno; in fact the party claims to have inherited his legacy. There is little chance for individuals outside Sukarno’s bloodline to take over the party’s helm because they would not win support from the party’s grass roots.

Last month Hadi Rudyatmo, the former mayor of Surakarta, Central Java, apparently tried to open the Pandora’s Box of succession within the party. He explicitly named Megawati’s second child, Muhammad Prananda Prabowo, the best candidate to succeed his mother.

Megawati has two sons, Mohammad Rizki Pratama and Prananda, from her first husband, the late Air Force captain Surindro Supjarso, and one daughter, Puan Maharani, from her third husband, the late businessman Taufik Kiemas. The daughter is much better known compared with her siblings, as she appears to have been groomed from the very beginning as the “crown princess”.

It remains unclear why Rudy, the former deputy of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo when the latter was Surakarta mayor, has started the discourse on succession, but the party will only hold a national congress in 2024, just before the general election.

Megawati has not taken Rudy’s bait. According to the party’s statutes Megawati has the prerogative of making the decision on strategic matters, including the party leadership succession.

Megawati herself has divided duties between Prananda and Puan, with the former focusing on “upstream” such as the party’s ideology and the latter on “downstream” through her roles in practical politics as minister and now the House of Representatives speaker.

To be honest, neither Prananda nor Puan has a convincing record as a credible party leader. They may need more time to learn — some say they will never match their mother — to be more acceptable to the party membership.

Megawati survived oppression during the New Order era as well as 10 years outside the power circle as an opposition leader from 2004 to 2014.

Practically Megawati has led the party since 1993, or six years after then president Soeharto allowed her to join the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI). On July 27, 1996, Soeharto ousted her from the party’s top post in a bloody takeover, but she refused to give up. After Soeharto’s fall from grace in May 1998, the PDI faction loyal to Megawati was renamed PDI Perjuangan, or PDI-P.

In the 1999 legislative election the PDI-P won the most House seats, but Megawati failed to win the presidency as Islamic parties opposed her and instead picked the blind Abdurrahman “Gus Dur” Wahid as president and she became his deputy. In July 2001, Gus Dur was impeached and Megawati became the country’s fifth president until 2004, ironically with full support from the Islamic parties.

Megawati lost the 2004 and 2009 presidential elections to her former chief security minister Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. The turnaround came in 2014 and Megawati maintained the momentum in 2019 presidential election, with the party nominating Jokowi on both occasions.

It is safe to say that without Megawati’s blessing, Jokowi would not have achieved the highest office. Conversely, the Jokowi effect helped the PDI-P win back-to-back legislative elections.

Being the PDI-P chairwoman, Megawati enjoys nearly absolute power and the party elites, from the lowest rung of the party’s hierarchy up to the central board, have rarely questioned her decisions. Her supporters at the grassroots level are loyal to her, as evident in the last five elections since 1999, in which the party has consistently finished among the top two. Clearly Megawati is the uniting factor of the party.

With the 2024 elections drawing near and President Jokowi prohibited by the Constitution from running, Megawati’s leadership role will be more crucial than ever. Whether she will continue to remain at the party’s helm at such a decisive moment is anybody’s guess.

Prananda has preferred to remain invisible, but is active as an advisor to his mother and as her speech writer. His name is quite popular internally and senior party members describe him as the “ideological son” of Sukarno.

The Indonesian public, however, has little knowledge of him. His sister Puan is far more popular and has received more exposure, particularly after she served as one of Jokowi’s Cabinet members from 2014 to 2019 and now she holds the House speakership. Meanwhile, Megawati’s eldest son, Rizki, has opted to stay out of politics and focus on business.

Is there any potential successor of Megawati from outside Sukarno’s family? Several names have been touted, including President Jokowi, State Intelligence Agency (BIN) chief Gen. (ret) Budi Gunawan, Administrative and Bureaucratic Reform Minister Tjahjo Kumolo and Cabinet Secretary Pramono Anum. But again they are simply outsiders.

If she wants the PDI-P to survive and even grow stronger without her, Megawati must pick her best potential successor as soon as possible. So far the most realistic alternatives are Puan or Prananda.

Their capacity may be untested as yet, but at least PDI-P supporters will know the party’s direction early on.

***

Senior editor at The Jakarta Post

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