Watch out: Indonesian antiterror unit officers take their positions outside a building suspected to be a militants' hideout during a raid in Sukoharjo, Central Java, in this file photo of May 13, 2010. The recent arrest of radical cleric Abu Bakar Ba'asyir has created a breed of future leaders who may have a bigger role in determining future violence. AP

Ba'asyir's diminishing role in setting the course for the radical movement, following dissatisfaction among jihadists over his management style and his recent arrest, has created a breed of future leaders who may have a bigger role in determining future violence, officials and experts say.

Coordinating Political, Legal and Security Affairs Minister Djoko Suyanto said recently that there were many potential leaders from a younger generation who had already been involved in aspects of the violent jihadist movement, but remained in the shadows.

“It's difficult to detect them. Certainly they're staying below the radar. The people who regularly show up in public may actually play a lesser role,” Djoko said on the sideline of a Cabinet meeting last week.

The head of the ministry's office's antiterror desk, Ansyaad Mbai, said new leaders in the movement would very much depend on their exposure with international terrorism networks, their credibility among local and international radical figures, and their adaptation to the international configuration of the jihadist movement.

He cited the example of Sjahrir and his younger brother Syaifuddin Zuhri, who were new to the movement but managed to play a greater role than their seniors in the 2009 bombing of the JW Marriott and Ritz-Carlton hotels.

“Both had traveled to the Middle East and gained access to terrorist networks there despite the fact that their credentials at home did not rise above suspicion,” he said.

The police killed Sjahrir and Zuhri in separate shoot-outs late last year.

Law enforcement and intelligence agencies are currently monitoring Indonesians travelling to Yemen following revelations that Sjahrir had regularly traveled to the country to meet al-Qaeda operatives.

Ansyaad said the international center of radicalism had shifted from the border of Pakistan and Afghanistan to Yemen, which was possibly turning into a center for recruitment and management for al-Qaeda.

“It's not only the veterans that we are monitoring, but also a new breed of young people who have suddenly gained acceptance from international terrorist networks to mastermind an attack here,” he said.

More university students are being lured into terrorism as radicalization among the youth is estimated to have increased.

The recent antiterror police crackdown in West Java resulted in the arrest of a chemical engineering graduate who was helping out extremists plot a car-bomb attack.

Two students from Syarif Hidayatullah National Islamic University were recently sentenced to four-and-a-half years in prison for sheltering Zuhri.

“What scares me is that this group may no longer rely on patronage or blood links. They are more rational and pragmatic in selecting their future leaders for the sake of the organization's sustainability,” Ansyaad said.

Security analyst Noor Huda Ismail said that for a leader to be accepted by veteran jihadists, he needed to have a good background, including combat experience or involvement in a terrorist act, a good network with overseas groups and the skill to recruit others.

He said Ba'asyir's arrest would, to an extent, impact the jihadist movement but not in an enduring way, as his presence was actually no longer of significance as younger leaders were already in the game.

Veteran jihadists with combat or military training exposure in Afghanistan were usually the best pick to lead the jihadist movement.

“Although such experience is not necessary for a leader, it gives the person an upper hand as their character as a leader has been tested in a jihad,” former terrorist Sonhadi bin Muhajir said.

Sonhadi, who was among the brightest cadres of the jihadist movement and was also tipped as a future leader, said the most important aspect for a leader was to have a full understanding of sharia law and its application and to be accepted widely by the members of the movement.

“The leader should also have the ability to attract people into the movement and to influence others to support it,” said Sonhadi, who was also known as a master recruiter and had an extensive network both domestically and abroad.

Huda and Ansyaad identified Abu Tholut as among the few jihadists with all the necessary attributes to become a future leader.

Tholut once joined the police-initiated deradicalization program but was lured back into extremism, including a role in setting up a military training camp for jihadists in Aceh.

In Afghanistan, Tholut taught tactics and field engineering to Southeast Asian extremists and separatists between 1989 and 1993.

“Abu Tholut is more dangerous than the late Noordin M. Top or Dulmatin. He's their senior,” Ansyaad said.

Another former senior combatant of the Afghanistan war on the list is Zulkarnaen, who has been on the run since 2002 for masterminding the 2002 Bali bombing.

Zulkarnaen is one of the few people in Indonesia with direct contact to Osama bin Laden's network. He also once led a squad of fighters known as the Laskar Khos, or “special warriors”, whose members were recruited from some 300 Indonesians who trained in Afghanistan and the Philippines.

Another jihadist with leadership capabilities is Abu Rusdan, an explosives expert and a veteran of the anti-Soviet guerilla war in Afghanistan between 1986 and 1989.

“However, he is not desperate to seek a leadership role now as he is still pooling resources for the right time to move,” said a police officer speaking on condition of anonymity.

The International Crisis Group (ICG) said Rusdan believed he and his followers had to build up their strength before waging “war”.

Rusdan leads the traditionalist faction of the movement, the members of which consider themselves “pure” followers of Abdullah Sungkar, the late influential figure of the country's jihad movement, who together with Ba'asyir set up Jamaah Islamiyah (JI).

The most noted figure with leadership potential remains Ba'asyir's youngest son, Abdul “Iim” Rohim, who spent time in a military training camp on the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

“He has a chance because of his potential,” Ansyaad said.

In a recent interview, however, Iim said he did not have “enough knowledge and fighting experience [to follow in Ba'asyir's footsteps]”.

Iim is believed to have wide access to militant groups in Pakistan from when he resided there.

Iim and Tholut are senior members of the JAT, an above-ground organization embracing individuals with known ties to fugitive extremists. It has welcomed many JI members but clashed with the JI leadership over strategy and tactics, the ICG said.

Regardless of militant members in the JAT or JI, the jihad movement has an abundant pick of leaders.

Ansyaad and Huda believed it was likely that a joint leadership was being formed to unite the movement and avoid larger friction among members.

Huda said the pattern may no longer be centered on one figure but in a collegial form of two or more people.

“They will complement each other with specific skills to create a more organized and sophisticated network and movement,” he said.

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