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Analysis: Consumer confidence firm, trust in government falls
The state-of-the-nation, from a people’s perspective, is a fascinating tale of seemingly confusing contradictions
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he state-of-the-nation, from a people’s perspective, is a fascinating tale of seemingly confusing contradictions. In the quarter ending 30th September, the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index remained strong at 131, fractionally lower than the all-time high of 131.33 achieved in the preceding quarter. The positive sentiment was particularly strong in the Top 20 cities, collectively surging another four points to a record-setting high of 141.
In sharp contrast, the Good Governance Monitor during the same period displayed a nationwide plunge across all of the four key measurements. “Corruption is one of the major problems affecting the country” went up another notch to an all-time high, with nine out of 10 Indonesians crying out in unison. The worry was even more pronounced in urban Indonesia. “Democracy is working in my country” also took more battering, with a 4-point drop leaving 70 percent in agreement. The decline in belief was spread almost uniformly across the country.
But the most worrying signs for President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono have got to be the growing disenchantment. “The government is doing a good job running the country” slipped another three points for the quarter, with a rapidly declining six out of 10 Indonesians still holding their faith. But the number of believers, particularly in the Top 20 cities, are crashing out at an alarming rate. “I don’t trust the current government” was the most severe indictment for the quarter. Now, half of Indonesia agrees with the statement, up a staggering 12 percentage points in a single quarter. The steep upward curve of this negative trend has continued unabated for four straight quarters now. Now, kampung dwellers are among the most skeptical of all.
As the world watches, the national collection of black comedy continues to swell, with contributions from the ruling elite piling up almost each week. Everywhere you don’t look, incomprehensible stories jump out at you. In one of his very first statements in public, the new police chief says he plans to work with vigilantes who probably wouldn’t hesitate to burn a church or two. Legislators who aren’t in Greece studying ethics want the Attorney General to prosecute the two champions leading what’s left in the fight against corruption. A governor leaves his tsunami-hit province to go on a planned junket to Germany instead. These are just some of the not-so-funny charades that’s been discoloring the public mood in recent weeks, adding to the unending dramas of the last two years. Inevitably, the misdemeanors will not escape public scrutiny. They will take an even bigger toll on these measurements in the months and quarters ahead.
Numb, the average citizen appears to be giving up on any hopes for real change the country had been promised. Indonesia’s internal combustion engine, its consumer economy, effortlessly produces 70 percent of GDP year after year. People are making things, moving them, selling them, consuming them, day after day. The other 30 percent of GDP is in the hands of the powerful ruling class and the everyday Indonesian seems content to simply surrender the icing on the national cake to them. An average of 6 percent GDP growth each year is good by any standard, so there can’t be too much to complain about. Or is there?
The pity of it all is not what Indonesia is today, but what it could be. This emerging economy could be right up there with China, India and Brazil in socio-economic terms. A popular second-term president with a landslide victory can still go down in the pages of history as a national hero if he tries a little harder to deliver on some of the promises he had made. There are four years left in this second and final term. That’s ample time to make good. It’s not too late to make a U-turn, to take advantage of all the opportunities that Indonesia uniquely offers. It doesn’t take a professor of economics to identify the obvious game-changers.
Take fuel subsidies, for example. Instead of cutting back and using the money to build desperately needed infrastructure that could create jobs and spur growth, the populist choice was inevitably made. If national projects were executed with textbook transparency, the fight against corruption would have moved years ahead in both perception and reality. But the soft option has left the treasury groaning with an even bigger bill, with little money for investment. The price of fuel at the pump remains at 50 cents, unreal by regional comparison. The decision isn’t doing much for the national economy, the clogged roads, or the popularity of the president.
Most of the signs are still bullish. What will it take to take the bull by the horns?
These observations are influenced by Roy Morgan Single Source, the country’s largest syndicated survey with over 25,000 respondents annually. The findings are projected to reflect the population 14 years of age and older. Interviews are conducted every week in Indonesia’s cities, towns and villages to reflect a national perspective. The database is updated and released every 90 days.
The writer can be contacted at debnath.guharoy@roymorgan.com
