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n May 1, 1986, during a meeting with ASEAN foreign ministers in Nusa Dua, Bali, the then US president Ronald Reagan cited a joke about two American hikers who saw a big bear running toward them. His hosts were expecting some big presents from him in exchange for their near-absolute loyalty to Washington. The joke was just an opening remark.

With the heavy presence of major international media organizations, Reagan’s attendance was also planned as the right moment to show off the influence of ASEAN to the world. But the media paid little attention because, after the American president arrived in Bali, the Chernobyl nuclear power plant exploded.

Reagan was actually in transit, before leaving for Tokyo to attend the G7 summit. At that time, ASEAN members had high expectations that with the full backing of the world’s most powerful president, support would diminish for the brutal Khmer Rouge, who at that time was engaged in a war against Hun Sen’s regime. Vietnam had invaded Cambodia in 1979, toppled the Chinese-backed Khmer Rouge and installed Hun Sen as its puppet.

“And one of them sat down, took off his knapsack, reached in, got out of a pair of tennis shoes, and started to put them on,” the former mediocre Hollywood actor told the ministers, including Indonesia’s Mochtar Kusumaatmadja.

The other hiker says, “You don’t think that by putting on those tennis shoes — you’re going to be able to outrun that bear, do you?” While putting on his shoes, his friend responds, “I don’t have to outrun the bear; I only have to outrun you.”

What was the message of the leader of the world’s No. 1 superpower (at that time)? “Well, if there’s a bear coming over the hill, unlike the hiker, the American people can be counted on to stick with our friends. We won’t put on running shoes. Standing together, we can make certain the people of this region remain free and secure.”

One thing was sure 25 years ago. The regional grouping’s ministers and president Soeharto were extremely disappointed. The G7 summit’s communiqué did not touch upon any of ASEAN’s aspirations at all, despite Reagan’s strong promise. His administration acted like the hiker who prepared his shoes to run away, or who could only make promises. How about now?

This week, foreign ministers from ASEAN’s 10-member states hold their annual meeting here in Bali. Their talks are marked by a mixture of fear against China’s military build-up, with the latter’s fondness for showing off its muscles to its smaller neighbors, and high expectation of deriving huge benefits from the country’s economic might.

The foreign ministers are desperate to press China to agree to diplomatic and peaceful means in settling its territorial disputes on the South China Sea with four ASEAN members, namely: the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam, and Taiwan. China prefers to use harsh approaches and refuses any negotiations because, for the world’s No. 2 economic power, whatever it believes is its territory should be maintained at any cost, including military offensive action, if necessary. Out of the five claimants, perhaps only Vietnam can still clearly say “no” to China. The history between the two countries shows Vietnam is not an easy target.

ASEAN tries to be united on the South China Sea, while China with its huge financial resources tries to divide the organization’s members.

The ASEAN foreign ministers will host the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) on Saturday, to be attended by, among others, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi.

US President Barack Obama and the secretary of state, have repeatedly assured ASEAN members that the US will not let China be free to act in whatever manner it sees fit, in resolving the South China Sea issue.

But again, will Clinton be able to press Minister Yang to soften China’s position? The answer is very clear: “Why should Beijing listen to Washington?”

The US is still on the brink of an economic crisis, while many countries across the globe have little choice but to be nice and friendly to China because the health of their respective economies are so heavily influenced by China.

When the panda is running toward ASEAN now, the US will likely rush to find its shoes and outrun ASEAN.