R

ice is the staple food for most Indonesian people. Significant changes on the supply side will lead to significant economic and political impacts. Food security is the term to describe the importance of maintaining rice stocks.

The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) announces rice production three times a year in March, July and November. Until 2011, the BPS released five sets of food crop production figures namely forecast I, forecast II, forecast III, preliminary figures and final figures. Upon request of the Agriculture Ministry, in 2012 BPS scrapped forecast I, which was based on the real standing crop area at the end of December.

The reason was the figures were too premature and too inaccurate. The release of the figures was feared to trigger speculative practices that could shake market price.

It has been widely known that rice production is calculated based on two main variables: harvested area and yield per hectare. However, not many people are aware that the measurement of production or more specifically productivity is conducted on farm in quality of production of wet paddy. The production figure is then converted into dry un-husked paddy by multiplying the figure by a conversion rate.

Until 2012, the official wet paddy to dry un-husked paddy conversion rate was 86.02 percent and the dry un-husked paddy to rice conversion or better known as milling yield was 62.74 percent. The figures followed the Rice Post Harvest Losses Survey conducted by BPS and the Agriculture Ministry in 2005 – 2007.

Starting in 2013, BPS will use new paddy to rice conversion results from the Paddy to Rice Conversion Survey 2012. The survey covered 30 provinces, excluding Riau Islands, Bangka Belitung and Jakarta. The new rate for wet paddy to dry un-husked paddy conversion is 83.12 percent and the new rate for dry un-husked paddy to rice conversion is 62.85 percent.

The wet paddy to dry un-husked paddy conversion rate consists of two elements, which are losses in drying process and moisture reduction. The drying losses have upped from 3.27 to 6.09 percent and the moisture reduction increased by 0.08 from 10.71 to 10.79 percent. The rice yield as a result of declining milling losses was down from 3.25 percent to 2.98 percent.

The methodology adopted in the surveys could show different results. There were some differences in the methodology used to generate the figures. In 2005–2007, the surveys covered only dry season whilst the 2012 survey covered both wet season and dry season. The 2005–2007 surveys were conducted purposively whilst the 2012 survey was conducted with statistical sampling methodology.

The new rate of wet paddy to dry un-husked paddy conversion shows a decline. By applying the new rate, the dry un-husked paddy production figures will drop by 2.90 percent. Just for illustration, based on the new rate, the 2012 rice production of 68.96 million tons of dry un-husked paddy (Forecast II) will decline to 66.63 million tons. On the other hand, the dry un-husked paddy to rice conversion experienced an increase.

However, in total the rice production will be lower than previous level. Without considering losses such as transportation losses, storage losses, seed utilization and non food industrial utilization, the production of rice fell from 43.26 million tons to 41.88 million tons of rice. The figures do not explain the availability of rice for consumption as they are only converted into a different form.

Strong food security can be achieved by ensuring sufficiency and accessibility to food in the country. Sufficient supply is one of the most important aspects in maintaining and improving food security. When talking about supply, it is not arguable that self sufficiency is the most recommended strategy for developing countries with a large agricultural area like Indonesia.

Learning from the new paddy to rice conversion, it is clear that on farm production process is not the only effort to be taken into account in improving food security in supply side.

The post harvest must be considered an important aspect to produce more food. More incentive and encouragement for researchers in developing efficient, effective and applicable technology of rice post harvest is very essential.

The writer heads the Evaluation and Report of Food Crops Statistics section at the Central Statistics Agency ( BPS). The opinions expressed are his own.