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Commentary: Who leads the 21st century Asia-Pacific? Certainly not the US

Events over the past week and the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders summit have confirmed what most people already knew but were hesitant to openly admit: It is China, not the United States, who is the leader of the Asia-Pacific region in the 21st century

Meidyatama Suryodiningrat (The Jakarta Post)
Nusa Dua, Bali
Sat, October 5, 2013

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Commentary: Who leads the 21st century Asia-Pacific? Certainly not the US

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vents over the past week and the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders summit have confirmed what most people already knew but were hesitant to openly admit: It is China, not the United States, who is the leader of the Asia-Pacific region in the 21st century.

We expect no game-changing outcomes from the APEC Summit, but it will, along with global events in the preceding months, represent a tilt in perceptions as to the primus inter pares in the power relationship in the region.

A post-American century is truly in evolution.

The United States will not lose significance in the geopolitics of the region, especially as it still has some 100,000 service personnel on active duty in Asia.

But there will be two perceptions when the US presence is taken into consideration. The first will be as a simple hedge to counterbalance China when its (military) intentions raise occasional concern.

The second will be as a security guarantee for traditional allies of the US such as Japan, Korea and the Philippines.

For the fourth time as president, Barack Obama has cancelled a visit to Indonesia.

Each cancellation has had its own unique reason, some valid '€” such as the Gulf of Mexico oil spill in 2010 '€” others less convincing, such as his first in 2009 when he attended the APEC Summit in Singapore but neglected to pay a visit to Jakarta despite flying farther to Beijing and Tokyo.

This week'€™s cancellation is well understood. The government shutdown resulting from a congressional impasse casts a harshly embarrassing light on the effectiveness or otherwise of US governance.

What is essentially a domestic crisis sends out a singular global message: How can the US be a world leader when it has repeatedly shown it cannot even lead itself?

Keep in mind that this is not a case of simply not coming to Indonesia (again), but passing up the opportunity to rub shoulders with Asia-Pacific'€™s most important and influential leaders at APEC in Bali and the East Asia Summit in Brunei.

This will also be the second consecutive APEC Summit he has skipped, after being absent from Vladivostok.

Compare that to the consistency of China'€™s President Xi Jinping, who this week not only visited Jakarta but committed himself to returning to Indonesia, a few days after departing the capital for a visit to Malaysia, to attend the summit in Bali.

One may argue that Xi only has to endure a third of Obama'€™s flight time from Washington DC, but the commitment shown sends the most resounding message about relative commitment to the region.

Xi made all the right noises this week, including a call for an Asia infrastructure bank to fund and support the development of infrastructure in the region.

Meanwhile, Obama'€™s much touted '€œpivot'€ to Asia feels more like a pirouette with an overemphasis on military engagement and a haranguing of China'€™s rising influence through discordant initiatives such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

China too has its problems. Its overreach on disputes in the South China Sea is a constant worrisome development for the future.

But whether you call it a charm offensive, or acting as a responsible regional power, Beijing has been deftly disarming in its diplomacy by focusing on Southeast Asia and ASEAN.

It truly deserves parity with the US as a regional power, with a nose ahead at the finishing line for its diligent engagement and commitment.

Asia'€™s spotlight has not dimmed for the US, but rather the US has moved further away from it.

There is little chance of Washington being able to hog the spotlight again, especially since it does not wield the economic clout it did in decades past.

The only way a reverse could occur is if Beijing itself makes the misstep of emulating the US by emphasizing military, rather than economic and cooperative initiatives, when engaging this region.

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