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Insight: The 2014 presidential elections: Problems and prospects

A tribute is called for to praise Megawati Soekarnoputri, the chairperson of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), who has shown her statesmanship and appointed Jakarta Governor Joko “Jokowi” Widodo as her party’s presidential candidate

Jusuf Wanandi (The Jakarta Post)
Jakarta
Tue, May 13, 2014

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Insight: The 2014 presidential elections: Problems and prospects

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tribute is called for to praise Megawati Soekarnoputri, the chairperson of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), who has shown her statesmanship and appointed Jakarta Governor Joko '€œJokowi'€ Widodo as her party'€™s presidential candidate. On her part, it is also a sacrifice, as she has been waiting for her own chance to take the post for the 10 years she has spent in opposition.

Had she had that chance this time, she would have considered it as a continuation of Sukarno'€™s and her own presidency in 2001-2004.

Now she is expected to make another sacrifice to decide on a vice presidential candidate other than her daughter.

Many, if not most, political observers anxiously hope that Megawati will end up choosing the best among Indonesian leaders for that critically important post.

As president, Jokowi would need a true supporter and partner in his efforts to revive the Indonesian economy in the face of a lackluster global economy in general, as well as the gigantic problems of unemployment and under-employment, poverty and a growing income discrepancy within Indonesia.

One member of the Board of Commissioners of Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI), who is well-versed in international economics, was quoted as stating that unless we have a good vice president who really understands Indonesian economic problems, it can be expected that within three to six months foreign capital will leave Indonesia, apart from that which stays put for political or strategic calculations.

This will be Megawati'€™s additional burden, and she is aware of this challenge as she had to go through such a crisis herself during her own presidency.

More than that, the general trend of public opinion after the legislative election has been for Jokowi'€™s popularity to decline somewhat while Prabowo Subianto'€™s has been rising.

That means one thing '€” besides having a vice presidential candidate who is well-known and trusted especially in economic affairs, which are not Jokowi'€™s strength, the PDI-P and other supporters of Jokowi'€™s presidency (especially the NasDem Party and the National Awakening Party [PKB] as coalition allies) should work much harder, as Prabowo'€™s efforts cannot be taken lightly.

This is a critical period in Indonesia'€™s history and hope abounds that Jokowi'€™s candidacy can fulfill the expectations of the younger generation. To do that, he should win the presidency with a running mate who can support him, particularly in economic matters.

It is of utmost importance then that the PDI-P and Jokowi'€™s personal team are more united in facing the challenges of the presidential elections (and, immediately, the vice presidential selection), which was not the case in the legislative election. That was due to the short time to consolidate, but this shortcoming should be overcome soon as the public is confused by the signs of disunity between the PDI-P and Jokowi'€™s teams.

The legislative elections came up with reasonable results because political parties are the defining factors, as we have experienced in so many elections before.

Meanwhile, personalities and popularity are more important factors in the presidential elections. There are now two coalition blocks set to compete in the presidential elections on July 9. Another block may join the race if the Democratic Party and the Golkar Party manage to form a coalition but most probably that will only become a distraction. In the end, whether it happens in the first or the second round of the presidential elections, it will be a choice between two fundamentally different candidates with different programs.

One is a candidate who will be close to the people, trusted by them, and will strengthen the democratic ways we would like to follow in the future, with a focus on economic development for the people, as an integral part of the international economy.

The other candidate will strive to have a strong government by emulating the Soeharto regime'€™s authoritarian style, with a democratic façade where everything works top-down in accordance with the military culture that the candidate is used to. And above all, there will be an economic system that will be self-sufficient, without an important role for the regional and international economy. It will be a closed economy, which will be government-run and dominated.

These are the options available for the people to choose from, and they represent a very stark comparison. Most people will probably not understand the difference, and that makes the role of the middle class and the elite even more important in enlightening the public. This includes the fact that the authoritarian-inclined candidate has historical baggage, due to his former role in the military, related to alleged human rights abuses that have never been clarified.

Some people might not have experienced this but others will have a certain '€œfeeling'€ about those alleged abuses, and will react as they eventually know more about them, especially the future consequences if the candidate ever becomes a leader with all-encompassing power including the power to interpret and implement the Constitution as he sees it.

I, for one, think that the choice is clear, and that the best option to take is even clearer.

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The writer is vice chair of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Foundation'€™s board of trustees.

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