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Bandung Scenario launched, raises flag in energy sector
Four different scenarios on the possible future of Indonesia's energy sector were revealed on Tuesday, laying out warnings and showing what Indonesia's energy landscape may look like in 2030
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our different scenarios on the possible future of Indonesia's energy sector were revealed on Tuesday, laying out warnings and showing what Indonesia's energy landscape may look like in 2030.
The scenarios, the outcome of a series of meetings held in Bandung in August involving 28 experts in the sector. The four scenarios are Wave, Storm, Rocks and Crew.
The four scenarios look at different issues and driving factors that may shape Indonesia's energy in the future, including climate change, regional instability, potential international disruption of energy supplies, central government vs. regional control and ineffective regulatory frameworks.
"This Bandung Scenario is very important. We are often too busy to face daily challenges and forget to develop for the future. We need this long view. We need to look beyond the year 2030," Vice President Boediono said during a keynote speech at the launch held at PT PLN's office in South Jakarta.
The head of the President's Delivery Unit for Development Monitoring and Oversight (UKP4), Kuntoro Mangkusubroto, said the four scenarios would help the country understand the various challenges it might face in the future.
"The consequences of failing to plan for Indonesia's energy future and adapt to a changing energy environment could be severe, leading to a stagnation of growth in critical industries and huge price shocks, causing uncertainty for business and hurting Indonesia's poor," Kuntoro said.
The Bandung Scenario was developed based on proven scenario planning methodology first developed by oil firm Shell in 1972. A similar methodology was proposed in South Africa, shortly before an election won by Nelson Mandela.
The Bandung Scenario is aimed at helping shape the country's energy future and kick start debate on solutions so that the new government and all stakeholders can work together to create a sound and sustainable energy future toward 2030. (rcf)
