The survey, released by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), showed that the surprise nominations of former culture and education minister Anies Baswedan and Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, the eldest son of former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, were game changers.

A few months ago, the governor was virtually the only competitive candidate in the race, with his rivals — singer-songwriter Ahmad Dhani, City Council deputy speaker Lulung Lunggana and former law and human rights minister Yusril Ihza Mahendra — seen as too unpopular among voters to beat Ahok.

The governor, who replaced Joko “Jokowi” Widodo in 2014 after the latter was elected president, remains the candidate to beat, the LSI said, but his standing is now in striking distance for his competitors.

The governor was favored by 31.4 percent of the 440 respondents of the survey, which was held from Sept. 28 to Oct. 2. His rivals, Anies and Agus, trailed with 21.1 and 19.3 percent, respectively.

“This could be a problem for Ahok. In order to win, an incumbent should have an electability margin of at least 20 percent above the nearest candidate,” LSI researcher Adjie Alfaraby said.

It is worth noting that 28.2 percent of the respondents were undecided. It would be harder for Ahok to get their votes, Adjie said, as he had begun preparing for the race much earlier than other hopefuls who had just announced their gubernatorial bids.

The survey found that 97 percent of respondents knew about Ahok, while only 78 percent and 74.5 percent knew about Agus and Anies, respectively.

The LSI noted that Ahok’s approval rating was declining. In March, his rating was at 59.3 percent. It then dropped to 49.1 percent in July, before going down further to 31.4 percent in October.

“If Anies and Agus were not taking part in the election, I am sure that [Ahok’s approval rating] would not plunge as it has,” Adjie said.

Ahok, however, was unfazed by the survey results, telling reporters at City Hall: “Don’t ask me about the election. Let’s just talk about working [on developing the city].”

The former Belitung regent has displayed confidence about his chances in the election, often telling people not to vote for him if they do not think he is good enough.

He has also said he does not need to campaign and will instead focus on doing his job. He has challenged the 2016 Regional Elections Law to make it legal for incumbent candidates to work during the official campaign period.

Other than the emergence of Anies and Agus as worthy rivals, three other factors that have contributed to Ahok’s declining rating are his ruthless eviction policy, his arrogance and his race and religion, according to the LSI’s findings.

However, most Muslims (27.7 percent) still support Ahok. Anies was favored by 22.8 percent of Muslim respondents, followed by Agus with 20.6 percent. Ahok’s approval rating is even higher among non-Muslim respondents. A total of 83.3 percent preferred Ahok compared to only 2.8 percent who wanted Anies and 3.2 percent for Agus.

The LSI survey results were similar to another survey released last month by Poltracking Indonesia.

Poltracking said that while Ahok never reached more than 50 percent in each possible scenario, his approval rating was only slightly higher than that of Anies when the two were compared. “This could be a serious threat for Ahok,” Poltracking Indonesia executive director Hanta Yuda said at the time. Regional election committees have reminded the incumbents to take leave for their reelection campaign despite the court petition filed to annul this requirement.

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