The software created by United States-based OpenAI has demonstrated an ability to generate essays, poems and conversations from the briefest of prompts. On top of that, it can also generate recommendations on investments.

The Jakarta Post asked ChatGPT how it would go about turning Rp 100,000 (US$6.70) into Rp 1 billion, and it turns out the number-crunching behemoth has several ideas to achieve just that.

“While it's true that increasing Rp 100,000 by 10,000-fold is a very difficult goal, it's not impossible to achieve if you're willing to take on a high level of risk,” ChatGPT answered first.

The bot kept repeating the same message over and over, namely that “wealth creation is a gradual process” and there is no shortcut; there will be risks, and there is no guarantee of returns. It insisted so much that the Post needed to tweak the prompts many times before getting an answer that was somewhat more to the point:

“The most effective way to build wealth is through a disciplined approach to investing and saving over time.”

Whether “a disciplined approach” is more likely than a decidedly reckless approach to achieve such an unrealistic goal is anyone’s guess.

With the right prompts, however, the bot eventually came closer to accepting the notion that one must risk a lot to gain a lot, but it was still at pains to not come across as actually suggesting that the user go down that road.

“I cannot recommend that you take unnecessarily risky actions with your money, even if it is a small amount relative to your total wealth,” it said.

Several argumentative prompts later, ChatGPT said the Rp 100,000 could multiply that much when thrown into high-growth and speculative stocks or into cryptocurrency.

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When asked to pick among Indonesian stocks, the AI recommended putting Rp 25,000 each into Bank Rakyat Indonesia and Bank Mandiri, Rp 20,000 each into Telekomunikasi Indonesia and Bank Central Asia and Rp 10,000 into Astra International.

ChatGPT apparently based those recommendation on “historical and projected growth” and claimed investment in those five stocks could “potentially provide significant returns over the long term”. The bot admitted it might take more than a decade to achieve the Rp 1 billion goal, if it is ever achieved at all.

Scrutinizing that suggestion, PT Infovesta Utama research and consulting manager Nicodimus Kristiantoro said there was a grain of truth in ChatGPT’s recommendations, but to reach the Rp 1 billion goal, one would “need bigger capital”.

Using a compound interest formula, the Rp 20,000 investment in BCA would take 37 years to reach Rp 200 million when assuming consistent returns at 20 percent annually, elaborated Nicodimus, while admitting that that assumed rate of return was too high.

“We need to be more realistic, because there are no exact calculations in stocks [investment]; no one can guarantee an annual 20 percent return,” he told the Post on Thursday

Nicodimus said it was more likely to reach that goal through crypto investment, given the “more aggressive swings” and longer trading sessions of that asset class.

While a traditional stock market typically operates from 9:30 a.m to 4 p.m., crypto trading platforms are open 24/7, though most traders are only active within a certain time window.

For cryptocurrency, ChatGPT recommended a distribution of Rp 50,000 in Bitcoin, Rp 30,000 in Ethereum and Rp 20,000 in Binance Coin, obviously avoiding the suggestion to go for more volatile, lesser-known coins.

Bitcoin has experienced a fantastical 2.7 million percent gush over 10 years in the past, far more than the 999,900 percent increase needed to swell Rp 100,000 to Rp 1 billion. Binance Coin’s value surged by 703,000 percent between 2017 and 2021.

“But, in my opinion, everything comes full circle to being realistic, especially when bearing in mind that crypto today is not booming as much as it was back in the pandemic,” says Nicodimus.

It took numerous attempts and tweaking of prompts to get the machine to finally spit out some answers on “speculative”, with the machine still determined to avoid any impression of providing financial advice.

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When traders pick speculative stocks, they do not typically do so with a company’s fundamental strength or sustainable business model in mind. When it comes to naming names, traders are naturally hesitant, because by placing a stock in that category they may put the reputation of many parties on the line, including their own.

ChatGPT listed six stocks tradable on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) as speculative: ABM Investama, Adaro Energy, Trada Alam Minera, Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur (ICBP), Vale Indonesia (INCO) and Bumi Resources (BUMI).

“If you have a high risk tolerance and are willing to take on more risk, you may consider allocating your Rp 100,000 to the speculative stocks as follows,” said the bot, before detailing that the Post needed to invest half in ICBP and split the rest evenly into INCO and BUMI.

“Valuation swings in speculative stocks are greater than in growth stocks [listed above], but the risks are also high. You can lose a lot of funds,” said Nicodimus.

However, he disagreed with ChatGPT about calling Indofood and Vale “speculative”, since both had a “sustainable growth” trend despite the recent fall.

“You can’t call them speculative, these two issuers have good fundamentals, too.”