In doing so, Japan will pay less attention to its regional neighbors such as ASEAN. Economic relations and investment may remain stable, but we cannot expect Japan to come up with major breakthroughs as it will take this region, including Indonesia, for granted while China’s economic and military might steadily rises.

China is a direct threat to Japan in terms economy, security and territorial sovereignty. Japan is also surrounded by hostile countries such as South Korea, North Korea and Russia. Japan, the world’s third largest economy, wants to fight China, the world’s second most powerful economy, but is too afraid to do it alone. Therefore Japan has formed military alliances with China’s nemeses like the US, Australia and India, under a group called the Quad, although Japan is not a key player.

Yet a more assertive China is worrying not only for Japan, but for many other countries, which China can easily punish with severe economic sanctions. Although heavily economically dependent on China, Japan is able to forge mutually beneficial ties that elude developing countries.

Japan needs the umbrella of US protection because its people are very reluctant to revise the US-drafted Constitution. Although Japan’s military posture meets the qualities of normal military power, the Japanese people do not want to formalize it due to the long-standing trauma of World War II.

Strangely, or uniquely, Kishida will also angle human rights problems at China. Japan has rarely shown appetite for addressing human rights issues in other countries. For Japan it is economic cooperation that matters, without caring much for the human rights records of its partners.

Hopefully as this the policy shift happens, it will apply to Indonesia.

The Lower House’s election has been moved forward a few weeks to Oct. 31 as Kishida wants to use the new leadership change as an opportunity to attract more votes from the apathetic Japanese people. It seems that Kishida’s future will not be very different from that of his predecessor Suga, who could only survive one year. Like Suga, Kishida is overshadowed by the influence of former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe.

Japanese voters are traditionally reluctant to vote for younger politicians who promise major changes, unlike in countries like Indonesia and Canada. Japanese voters prefer stability and political certainty.

Whatever the result of the Oct. 31 Lower House election, PM Kishida will unlikely survive longer than his predecessor Suga. For Indonesia there will be no major changes to its bilateral ties with Japan too.

Japan will remain one of Indonesia’s most important economic partners. But we cannot expect more, as long as Japan cannot overcome its fear of China.