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Jakarta Post

Oil and gas revenue to miss target amid price slips

While revenue has weakened, investment in the upstream sector posted strong growth.

Ruth Dea Juwita (The Jakarta Post)
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Wed, July 23, 2025 Published on Jul. 22, 2025 Published on 2025-07-22T12:05:17+07:00

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An oil rig operates on April 2, 2023, in an oil and gas field managed by Pertamina Hulu Energi Offshore North West Java (PHE ONWJ) near Indramayu, West Java. 

An oil rig operates on April 2, 2023, in an oil and gas field managed by Pertamina Hulu Energi Offshore North West Java (PHE ONWJ) near Indramayu, West Java. (Antara/Aditya Pradana Putra)

I

ndonesia's oil and gas upstream revenue is expected to fall short of its 2025 target, the country’s energy regulator has said, as lower-than-expected global crude prices weigh on earnings despite strong investment and production performance.

The benchmark Indonesian Crude Price (ICP), assumed at US$82 per barrel in the 2025 state budget, has averaged below $70 so far this year, dragging down state revenue even as output remains relatively stable.

According to the Upstream Oil and Gas Regulatory Special Task Force (SKK Migas), state revenue from the upstream sector in the first half stood at $5.88 billion, or 45.1 percent of the full-year target of $13.03 billion set in the 2025 state budget.

“It’s because the oil price set in the state budget is $82 per barrel, but in reality, the average has been below $69-$70 per barrel. So even if we hit our production target, the lower prices automatically bring the numbers down,” SKK Migas head Djoko Siswanto said on Monday, as quoted by Kumparan.

The regulator now projects total receipts by the end of the year to reach only around $10.83 billion, or roughly 85 percent of the state budget assumption.

Read also: Total, Chevron may revive business in Indonesia: SKK Migas

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SKK Migas deputy for finance and commercialization Kurnia Chairi added that the weaker state revenue outlook was not only due to falling crude prices but was also partly influenced by oil and gas lifting performance.

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