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First-round election reduces some uncertainties

A first-round presidential election will be positive for the market as it should reduce some elements of uncertainty, although the winning pairing’s at-times indecisiveness remains an issue in the longer term, economists say

Aditya Suharmoko (The Jakarta Post)
Jakarta
Thu, July 9, 2009

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First-round election reduces some uncertainties

A first-round presidential election will be positive for the market as it should reduce some elements of uncertainty, although the winning pairing’s at-times indecisiveness remains an issue in the longer term, economists say.

Quick count results have put the pairing of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and former central bank governor Boediono way ahead of their rivals, collecting enough votes to avoid a second-round election.

This means that the incumbent can now start moving faster to lift the economy from the impacts of the global economic downturn, said Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, chief researcher at Danareksa Research Institute.

“A one-round election is market-positive, meaning that two months of uncertainty are gone should the election have run in two rounds,” Purbaya said on Wednesday.

All survey agencies revealed the Yudhoyono-Boediono pair garnered well above 50 percent of the votes, far above the pair of Megawati Soekarnoputri-Prabowo Subianto, who secured about 27 percent, and the pair of Jusuf Kalla-Wiranto, who received about 12 percent.

Destry Damayanti, chief economist at PT Mandiri Sekuritas agreed with Purbaya, saying: “The market is happy with the current policies, which are prudent. And nothing is against the market.”

But she was quick to add that in the long-term the economy would need faster and “out-of-the-box” decisions made by the government to help Indonesia survive the global economic downturn.

“Both of them [Yudhoyono and Boediono] are intelligent and understand issues well, but they are very careful and seem indecisive at times, which is a weakness.

“The current economic conditions need fast counter-cyclical measures to help cushion the economy [from the impacts of the global downturn].”

Destry added it should be time for Yudhoyono to show that he could make “risky” and bold decisions for the greater good of the economy.

“All this time, Kalla claimed he was the one who took all the initiatives and the risks,” she said, citing the 10,000 megawatt projects to provide electricity throughout Indonesia as an example.

Purbaya said the Yudhoyono-Boediono pairing should not focus on delivering the promises they have made so far, including achieving a 7 percent economic growth.

“Yudhoyono should aim to achieve growth of between 6 percent and 7 percent annually to reduce the rate of poverty and unemployment.

“Basically, by fixing the government’s current weaknesses, like slow spending and lagging infrastructure, a 7 percent growth is achievable.”

The economy, after expanding by 6.1 percent last year, is slowing down this year with full-year’s growth estimated at between 4 and 4.5 percent.

The positive and largely smooth and peaceful election will also help attract more foreign investors to Indonesia, according to Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati.

Realized investment, both domestic and overseas, in the first semester reached US$7.3 billion, according to the Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM).

BKPM chairman Muhammad Lutfi said Monday that the figure for inward investment was 27 percent up from that of the second semester last year, but still 35 percent down compared to the same period in 2008.

In stimulating the economy next year, Sri Mulyani also told reporters after casting her votes in Kebayoran Baru, South Jakarta, that the government next year will intervene to boost selected industries in the real sector as macroeconomic conditions  have stabilized, aiming to raise growth to between 5 percent and 6 percent.

Mulyani, one of key figures in the current Yudhoyono’s Cabinet, did not say which pairing she had voted for.

Basically, by fixing the government’s current weaknesses, a 7 percent growth is achievable.

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