Among the most worrying issues is the substantial decline in the number of food crop (paddy and secondary crop) households in just five years. The survey found that the number of paddy households in 2018 totaled 13.2 million, declining by 0.99 million from the results of the 2013 Agricultural Census. The drop in secondary food crop households was even larger, at 7.1 million households in 2018 from 8.6 million in 2013.

The decline is actually normal as Indonesia is experiencing rapid urbanization and a massive transformation in its economic structure. The problem is that it is accompanied by the ageing of farmers without generational
renewal.

The SUTAS 2018 shows that those aged 45 years old and above accounted for 64 percent of farmers. Worse, most of them still use outdated production techniques.

Another issue is the growth of the agricultural sector itself, especially the food crop subsector that was relatively small in the past five years. During 2013-2017, the output of food crops only grew by 2 percent. The figure was below the growth of the agricultural sector, which was 4 percent for the same period. The outcomes of a combination of demographic challenges and tiny growth in output are pretty obvious: low productivity and prolonged poverty in agricultural and rural areas.

We should also worry about the capacity of the country in fulfilling the food needs of its population, especially when it comes to food self-sufficiency. If current trends continue, food shortages as a result of excess population growth will eventually be evident. The BPS’ projection shows Indonesia’s population will grow by almost 1 percent annually in the next decade.

In fact, the decline in the number of farmers occurs along with decreasing area of paddy fields because of their massive conversion to nonagricultural uses. It poses another serious challenge in boosting food crop production to compensate for population growth, particularly rice. Moreover, it may force the country to become more dependent on rice imports.

The new figures show that paddy area was 7.1 million hectares in 2018, 646,000 ha lower than the figure in 2013. This is alarming as most Indonesians rely on rice with consumption per capita at 112 kilograms per year.

To create a sustainable future for the world’s food, the challenge is to close the food gap driven by population growth without expanding agricultural land. We currently use almost half of the world’s vegetated land for agriculture. According to the World Resources Institute, preventing agricultural land from expanding, which is mainly done through deforestation, can save forest areas nearly twice the size of India.

For Indonesia, increasing food production by preventing the expansion of agricultural land means the country has to rely on technology to boost crop productivity. Our farmers’ demographic profile is one of the main burdens. Not to mention the fact that most farmers are unskilled and have low exposure to the development of information technology. The statistics show only 30 percent of farmers have completed high school and only 16 percent had access to the internet.

One possible breakthrough is to engage millennials, who are aged below 40 years old, and encourage them to become farmers. To adopt new technologies and seek opportunities to innovate, you should be young and well-educated. And millennials’ education is better than their predecessors.

Their mean years of schooling was 10.04 years in 2018, which was longer than “generation X”, which had 8.07 years. Moreover, they are “digital natives” and can adapt to technological change very quickly.

Luckily, our government realizes the serious need for farmer regeneration through attracting millennials to the agricultural sector. The Agriculture Ministry just launched a program called Santri Tani Milenial (millennial santri farmers) that will see 4 million students of Islamic boarding schools become farmers. Of course, this initial step should be appreciated and supported. However, if we are seriously going to put our agricultural sector’s future on the shoulder of millennials, the scale of involvement should be massive.

On top of that, encouraging millennials to take an interest in faces a strong stigma that becoming a farmer is a traditional job associated with low income, less pride and poverty. To get rid of this stigma, the agricultural sector should be modernized by making use of new advanced technology.

The income of farmers should also be improved substantially. Several incentives for farmers through input subsidies, easing access to credit and price protection are needed. Besides, access to acquire agricultural land that can meet a profitable economic scale should be eased through the right regulations and land consolidation.

______________________

The writer is a data analyst at Statistics Indonesia and completed his master’s degree in applied econometrics at Monash University, Australia. The views expressed are his own.

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