As the Chinese government implements lockdowns in most of the country’s provinces to contain the new virus, countries that rely on Chinese tourists — including Indonesia — may see a drop in foreign arrivals from the East Asian country, economists and government officials have said.

“This will affect the number of [foreign] visitors but not overall arrivals,” Tourism and Creative Economy Minister Wishnutama Kusubandio said in Jakarta on Monday.

Wishnutama said the outbreak had yet to adversely affect tourist arrivals as this month’s visits were higher than those of last year’s but did not disclose precise numbers.

He added that the government would not restrict the arrival of Chinese tourists from provinces other than ground zero of the new coronavirus, Hubei. The government will instead heighten its vigilance against the outbreak.

Out of the 1.29 million foreign vacationers who visited Indonesia in November 2019, Chinese tourists accounted for 11.42 percent. China was the third-largest origin country of foreign tourists, behind neighboring Malaysia and Singapore.

President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s administration has been working to turn Indonesia’s tourism into a main driver of economic growth amid plummeting investments and exports.

As of Monday, the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) had killed about 80 people in China and infected more than 2,000 on four continents, AFP reported.

Indonesia announced a temporary suspension of all flights operated by Indonesian airlines to and from Wuhan after the city went into lockdown on Jan. 23.

The 2019-nCoV outbreak also forced the postponement of the annual Bali Kintamani Festival, originally scheduled for Feb. 8.

The outbreak may not only cause a decline in tourist arrivals in Bali, but also in Bintan and Batam, Riau Islands, and Jakarta, according to Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) Indonesia executive director Mohammad Faisal.

"The most significant impact on our economy this far was seen in tourism,” Faisal told The Jakarta Post on Monday. “If the outbreak lasts long, tourist arrivals may decline significantly.”

Association of Air Ticketing Companies in Indonesia (Astindo) president Elly Hutabarat said while travel agents had not reported any decrease in demand, Chinese citizens would most likely be discouraged from traveling overseas and other travelers would also be discouraged from traveling to China.

However, Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) researcher Rusli Abdullah was of the view that impacts from the virus would not heavily weigh on Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

Tourism contributed around 4 percent of the country’s economy in recent years. The government aims to double the contribution to 8 percent in 2019.

“Even if tourism’s contribution to GDP decreased, other sectors would probably be able to compensate for the decline,” Rusli said on Monday.

He expressed a greater concern over the virus’ impact on Indonesia’s trade as China is the country’s number-one trading partner.

Indonesia exported US$25.8 billion worth of non-oil and gas goods to China in 2019 and imported $44.5 billion of non-oil and gas goods, resulting in an $18.7 billion trade deficit on Indonesia’s end.

“Imports will continue without any warning from the government. However, sales of imported goods in the country will probably slow down as consumers choose to avoid Chinese goods,” Rusli said.

Trade Minister Agus Suparmanto expressed optimism that the coronavirus spread would not influence the two countries' trade. (dfr/mfp)

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