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Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan a test of China's global aspirations
While we all expect a big scare following Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, pursuing unification through military might will not only be reckless but against the long-term interests of Beijing.
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Chinese military helicopters fly past Pingtan island, one of mainland China's closest points from Taiwan, in Fujian province on Aug. 4, ahead of massive military drills off Taiwan following United States House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to the self-ruled island. (AFP/Hector Retamal)
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n a recent opinion piece, New York Times columnist and author Tom Friedman, advising United States House Speaker Nancy Pelosi not to travel to Taiwan, reminded her to focus on what is the big picture for the US at the moment in terms of foreign policy, ensuring Russia does not win the war in Ukraine.
I am wondering what the big picture is for Chinese President Xi Ping and whether short-term reactions like a strong retaliation against Taiwan following Pelosi’s visit could jeopardize the long-term goals China is aiming to achieve internationally.
President Xi wants basically two things. On the one hand, respect for his nation based on a peaceful acceptance of China’s bigger role in the region and globally, and on the other, yes, reunification with Taiwan.
Any miscalculated reaction to Pelosi’s provocative visit could imperil these two foundational ambitions.
The extreme and unforeseeable consequences of an overreaction could even put at risk his own domestic agenda or even his quest for an unprecedented third term at the helm of the Communist Party of China.
That is why the best interest of China would be guaranteed by only a strong response against Taiwan but not a full-blown escalation.
After all China knows the best means to bring into reality its geopolitical aspirations. First military, especially maritime, supremacy in the South China Sea and possibly the entire Pacific region. Second, a steadfast investment in building peace, stability and cooperation in what is still, from Beijing’s perspective, an unequal and unbalanced international order.
