Politics at the regional level paints a different picture compared to the national political scene, with alliances deemed more fluid, rivals often becoming teammates and friends turning into opponents.

The sole goal of the political parties is to win as many regional elections as they can, which, according to party executives, explains why members of the pro-government coalition at the House of Representatives often partner up with opposition parties in support of regional candidates.

Popularity of prospective candidates matters most

Party executives have said that local political landscapes, as well as the characteristics of each region and local figures also tend to play key roles in deciding whether to throw in support for candidates.

Thus, political parties often turn to figures who have high electability ratings to ensure they have the highest chance of winning local elections, said NasDem Party politician Willy Aditya, who is part of the party’s campaign team.

Willy said electability was the most significant factor that decided NasDem’s nomination of a candidate, saying that the party would even back non-NasDem members but were more electable than its own cadres.

United Development Party (PPP) secretary-general Arsul Sani said parties often used "different recipes" based on the demographic makeup of regions and local political landscapes in devising strategies to win regional elections.

“For the PPP, this is a dynamic factor and we prefer to align with the aspirations of our local branch executives [who know their regions better],” Arsul said.

Once parties form a coalition, they share a common goal to optimize and consolidate each of their own political machines to support their candidates, the politicians explained.

Government coalition members PPP and NasDem have teamed up with opposition Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), as well as the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the Democratic Party — both of which are neither part of the coalition or the opposition at the House — to support the candidacy of Machfud Arifin and Mujiaman in the Surabaya mayoral race in East Java.

For PAN, each region has its own “political configuration” that is independent of national-level alliances, said deputy chairman Viva Yoga Mauladi.

Blurring ideological lines

Political analysts say the blurry ideological lines of today’s politics is one of the major factors that can explain why coalitions of political parties in regional elections often do not mirror the coalitions at the House.

“Ideologically, there are no significant differences between political parties,” said Yoes C. Kenawas, a PhD candidate at Northwestern University.

“In Indonesia, there is usually a dichotomy between nationalist and Islam-based parties. But recently, the nationalist parties have embraced Islamist agendas and vice versa. That is because the ideological platforms [of political parties] are not solid.”

Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) Political Research Center head Firman Noor said policy agendas in local elections were often practical and, therefore, did not carry as much ideological weight as the national elections did.

“The agendas at the regional [level] are very practical and localized. For example, bridges need to be built in certain regions; such needs are usually disconnected from ideological [policy agendas],” he said.

“In regional elections, the [aim] is simpler: to win big. That’s when any political parties can be frenemies.”

How flexibility affects past election results

In the 2018 regional elections, small and medium-sized parties had the most gains with their candidates snatching gubernatorial posts in a number of provinces.

Mid-sized party NasDem, in coalition with other political parties, led the tally with a victory in 10 out of 16 gubernatorial elections, while political giants Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) only won in four provinces and Gerindra in three.

Smaller parties at the time were quick to support popular, technocratic candidates and less insistent on nominating their own members. NasDem, for example, endorsed Ridwan Kamil,  the current West Java governor, despite his lack of party membership. Gerindra and the PDI-P, however, insisted on nominating their own, lesser-known members in the West Java race, both of whom lost.

Long-term perspectives on the trend

Paramadina University political scientist Djayadi Hanan said flexible coalition-building effectively minimized the potential of prolonged polarization in society and post-election conflicts.

But on the downside, this can discourage political parties from championing candidates within their own ranks, making them lean toward those who are either members of existing political cliques or have the capital to run.

Critics have long pointed to the failure of so-called regeneration among political parties as a possible driver for the lack of competent candidates running for office, resulting in a surge in one-horse races.

In the coming December polls, 25 regions will have only one ticket contesting the election, thanks to majority support from parties that barely allow room for alternative candidates.

“The [political] system could be [in favor of] those who have the money and political [connections],” Yoes said.

Much public attention has been focused on the family members of current public officials who are running in the December elections. Among them are President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s son-in-law Bobby Nasution for Medan mayor in North Sumatra and eldest son Gibran Rakabuming Raka for mayor of Surakarta in Central Java — where Gibran and his running mate Teguh Santosa of the PDI-P would have gone unchallenged if an independent pair had not entered their bid at the last minute.

The Gibran-Teguh ticket is being backed by all six parties in Surakarta, except the Muslim-based Prosperous Justice Party, whose legislative seats are not enough to nominate a candidate pair.

Surakarta is a notable example of how parties ­— in this case, the Democratic Party, PAN and Gerindra — behind a candidate competing against a PDI-P incumbent in the 2015 Surakarta election, even when Surakarta was a PDI-P stronghold, shifted their support to Gibran and Teguh in the coming election.

In the South Tangerang election in Banten, Vice President Ma'ruf Amin's daughter, Siti Nur Azizah, is running for mayor, while Rahayu Saraswati Djojohadikusumo, a Gerindra Party politician and niece of party patron and Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, is running for deputy mayor on a different ticket.