Gibran, like Jokowi, has had no experience in politics prior to running but is backed by the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which has held Surakarta since Jokowi’s first win. What makes all the difference is now Gibran also has the number one politician behind him.

Gibran and his running mate, Teguh Prakosa of the PDI-P, would have gone unchallenged if an independent pair had not entered their bid at the last minute. But how important is the presence of Gibran’s competitors in this election?

Gibran becomes more popular despite ‘dynasty’ boos

Controversies emerged as a reminder of yet another political dynasty in the making since the PDI-P recommended Gibran for the top ticket, while the party also picked Jokowi’s son-in-law Bobby Nasution for the mayoral race in Medan, North Sumatra.

Nevertheless, Gibran’s popularity and electability have been increasingly promising.

A survey conducted by the Indonesia Public Institute (IPI) in November put Gibran’s popularity rate at 98.5 percent, whereas Gibran’s current rival, Bagyo Wahyono, was at 50.8 percent.

Gibran’s electability increased sharply as his popularity rose. In the same survey, his electability rate was 77.3 percent, far from Bagyo’s 3.4 percent. The survey also showed that in a pair-to-pair scenario, Gibran and Teguh had an electability rate of 79.2 percent, while Bagyo -- and his running mate FX Supardjo -- scored only 2.8 percent.

“Gibran was overwhelmingly what most people in Surakarta said as their top-of-mind answer,” said IPI executive director Karyono Wibowo.

The current deputy mayor, Achmad Purnomo, who had been championed by the PDI-P’s Surakarta chapter to run alongside Teguh, had a competitive popularity rate of 89.4 percent in August when Gibran’s was at 95.2 percent. Achmad, however, dropped out of the race before he formally placed his bid following internal tensions.

Gibran only surpassed Achmad in terms of both popularity and electability after he formally secured the nomination of both the PDI-P provincial chapter and central board .

In December last year, the IPI recorded Gibran’s popularity at 82.3 percent, lower than Achmad’s 94.5 percent. Meanwhile, research institute the National Survey Media (Median) put Achmad’s electability rate at 40.9 percent and Gibran’s at only 19.1 percent.

“Achmad could have won the race if he stayed,” said the IPI’s Karyono.

Is Gibran’s competitor an ‘extra’ player?

With Achmad dropping out of the race -- just as Jokowi personally briefed him in July -- Gibran still needed something else to secure his win, namely a weak competitor, political analyst Agus Riewanto of Surakarta’s Sebelas Maret University said.

The reason for this is that Gibran and his running mate would have to secure a simple majority, or 50 percent plus one vote, to win the election.

However, there remained a substantial number of undecided voters when his nomination was announced, although later the data showed a decrease following Gibran’s electability rise.

“It would be tough for Gibran. That’s why a petty match was sought: Bajo,” Agus told the Post on Monday, referring to the candidate pair Bagyo and Supardjo.

Agus said the fact that most people behind Bagyo were Jokowi’s volunteers during the presidential election proved that the PDI-P had deliberately encouraged Bagyo to move forward in the race.

While many predicted Gibran would be competing against a kotak kosong (blank box) in an uncontested election, Bagyo passing the requirements for the mayoral race at the last minute came as a surprise given his humble background and zero public influence.

To advance on the independent track, Bagyo, a fashion designer, must gain the support of at least 8.5 percent of Surakarta voters on the voter roll for the 2019 general elections, or equal to 35,870 voters.

When Bagyo first sought verification of his voters at the Surakarta General Elections Commission (KPUD Surakarta) in June and July, 7,241 voters were declared ineligible. He then got 10,000 voters verified by the KPUD in August.

“In the second verification, Bagyo managed to get thousands of voters in a matter of days, which was irrational. It is highly suspected that there was assistance from the opposing group in order for him to qualify for the race,” Agus said, calling it “symbolic politics”.

Bagyo has admitted that he was uncomfortable with accusations coming from various parties that called him “a puppet candidate” in the election, saying that he had planned to run as an independent candidate long before other names appeared, including Gibran.

Bagyo said he had prepared himself and sought support for two years, thanks to the help of grassroots community group Tikus Pithi Hanata Baris.

Tikus Pithi Hanata Baris chairman Tuntas Subagyo later told kompas.com that the group, founded in 2014, was purely an independent coalition of people with a vision to improve the image of democracy in Indonesia. He said the group supported Bagyo in the Surakarta election because of his trustworthy and honest characteristics, and that they aimed to secure 81 percent of the vote in the election.

Bagyo admitted that his participation in the upcoming election was not of his personal desire. He said he was appointed by the organization, whose members funded the election campaigns.

The first public debate for the mayoral election was held at the Sunan Hotel in Surakarta on Nov. 6, while the second one is scheduled for Thursday.

Parameter Politik Indonesia executive director Adi Prayitno said the debates were no more than a regulatory obligation to fulfill as Gibran had a big lead over his rival.

Bearing the faith Surkartans had in Gibran to emulate his father, Gibran appeared to confidently master a variety of issues in the city, while Bagyo only focused on strengthening local traditions, he said.

“It’s an unbalanced fight. Gibran is almost without any resistance from individual candidates. Against all corners of the wind, Gibran is superior,” Adi said.