As the countdown begins to the first round on April 10 next year the centrist Macron can no longer be sure that the run-off two weeks later will be a repeat of the 2017 duel with far-right leader Marine Le Pen, which he won easily.
resident Emmanuel Macron remains the favourite to win France's next election but six months before the polls he faces the uncomfortable situation of not knowing the identity of his main challenger.
As the countdown begins to the first round on April 10 next year the centrist Macron can no longer be sure that the run-off two weeks later will be a repeat of the 2017 duel with far-right leader Marine Le Pen, which he won easily.
Instead, Macron faces a host of uncertainties and a hand of wild cards in a campaign that has already seen startling shifts.
Assumptions have been upended in the last weeks by the surge of far-right TV pundit Eric Zemmour, dubbed a French version of Donald Trump, who threatens -- if he decides to stand -- to outpoll Le Pen and split the far-right vote.
The traditional right is not even close to settling on a candidate in a process that has caused internal feuding, with heavyweights like former minister Xavier Bertrand, Paris region chief Valerie Pecresse and ex-Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier in contention.
The left have their own troubles, with the campaign of the Socialist mayor of Paris Anne Hidalgo yet to find momentum and the Greens hurt by a bitter selection contest that failed to unify pragmatists and radicals. Their ratings are below those of extreme-left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon.
'Shaken up'
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